黄金期货日报：继续消化前期利好，金价高位震荡-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The gold market is still digesting the previous interest - rate cut by the Fed. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October has slightly decreased after Fed officials' communication with the market, causing the gold price to move sideways at a high level or show a weak trend recently [8]. - The current gold trend is still very strong. The RSI indicator shows that the over - bought level of the outer - market gold monthly line has reached the highest in nearly 50 years. There is a short - term risk of over - bought correction, but in the long term, it indicates a continuous bullish momentum [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Outer - market and SHFE Futures Market Situation - On Wednesday, COMEX gold futures fluctuated at a high level. On Thursday (20250925), SHFE gold fell from a high. The main 2512 contract closed at 854.72 yuan/gram, down 5.28 yuan/gram or 0.61% from the previous trading day's closing price. Fed officials' continuous and intensive speeches and communication with the market have led to gold maintaining a high - level oscillation [1]. - The trading data of SHFE gold futures contracts of different delivery months on 20250925 are presented, including pre - settlement, opening price, high, low, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, turnover, and open interest and its changes. The total trading volume is 408,591 lots, and the total turnover is 34,987,381.12 ten - thousand yuan. The total open interest is 461,083 lots, with a decrease of 2,067 lots [6]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Analysis - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the Fed's interest - rate policy decision last week and believes further rate cuts may be necessary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warns against excessive early rate cuts and says the US job market remains stable and solid [8]. - After the Fed officials' communication with the market, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October has slightly decreased, resulting in the recent high - level sideways or weak trend of the gold price. The market is still digesting the Fed's rate cut last week [8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The gold market currently focuses on the Fed's rate - cut move in October. The market is closely watching financial market data related to rate cuts and officials' speeches, especially the US PCE price index on Friday. An unexpected rise in inflation will boost the US dollar and suppress the gold price [9].