养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: The price of soybean oil futures rose during the day due to the exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the news of potential US support for Argentina's currency swap. With sufficient domestic supply and weak market confidence in the "strong expectation," the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Y2601 contract, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may lead to a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed purchases. Although imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially make up for the supply, the trade policy of Canadian rapeseed remains uncertain. If imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - Palm Oil: From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.26 - 7.89% month - on - month, and from 1 - 25, exports increased by 11.3 - 12.9% month - on - month. There is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to B45 before moving to B50. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support at 8900 - 8910 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2: The exhaustion of Argentina's export tax - free quota and the uncertainty of supply policies have led to price fluctuations. The domestic supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended that aggressive strategies consider going long with a light position, while conservative strategies consider temporary observation [5]. - Corn and Corn Starch: In the short term, the CBOT corn futures price is expected to remain in a low - level range. The domestic market is mainly a game between low channel inventory and the new season's listing rhythm. It is recommended to consider selling wide - straddle option combinations or out - of - the - money call options [7]. - Soybean No. 1: The price rebounded with Bean No. 2, but its fundamentals changed little. The new domestic soybeans are gradually being listed, and the supply is increasing, which restricts the price increase [8]. - Peanuts: The new season's peanuts are expected to have an increased yield and lower production costs. As the listing volume gradually increases, there is supply pressure on the spot and futures prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Hogs: The futures price of hogs fluctuated and bottomed out. The current market is affected by factors such as feed prices and production capacity reduction expectations. It is recommended that cautious investors hold long - short spreads, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2601 contract after the production capacity reduction is confirmed [10]. - Eggs: The futures price of eggs rebounded with reduced positions. After a continuous decline, the spot price rebounded slightly in September. It is recommended that cautious investors avoid short - selling, while aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Market Analysis - Oilseeds: Products such as Bean No. 1, Bean No. 2, and peanuts are expected to have a volatile adjustment. It is recommended to temporarily observe [13]. - Oils: Soybean oil is expected to decline with fluctuations, while rapeseed oil is expected to be slightly stronger, and palm oil is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe soybean oil and palm oil, and go long on rapeseed oil with a light position [13]. - Proteins: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to observe [13]. - Energy and By - products: Corn and corn starch are expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - Livestock: Hogs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and eggs are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to observe hogs and go long on eggs at a low price [13]. - Commodity Arbitrage - For most varieties, it is recommended to observe, while for hogs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads at a low price [15]. - Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It includes the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [19]. - Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [20]. - Livestock - Daily Data: It provides the daily data of hogs and eggs, including prices, price changes, and cost - profit data [21][22]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of hogs and eggs, including prices, production costs, profits, and slaughter data [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock (Hogs and Eggs): It includes charts of futures and spot prices of hogs and eggs, as well as related price charts such as piglets and white - striped pork [26]. - Oilseeds and Oils - Palm Oil: It includes charts of production, exports, inventory, and other aspects of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil inventory and trading volume [36]. - Soybean Oil: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rate, and inventory [43]. - Peanuts: It includes charts of peanut arrival, shipment, processing profit, and inventory [52]. - Feed - Corn: It includes charts of corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profit [58]. - Corn Starch: It includes charts of corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rate, and inventory [65]. - Rapeseed: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and processing profit [69]. - Soybean Meal: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, and basis [75]. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest of corn [93]. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of warehouse receipts of products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [96].