热点追踪周报:由创新高个股看市场投资热点(第213期)-20250926
Guoxin Securities·2025-09-26 12:06
- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts_max(Close, 250)}} $ where Closet represents the latest closing price, and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback[11][19][23] - The model evaluates the relative proximity of major indices to their 250-day highs. As of September 26, 2025, the distances for indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index are 1.43%, 1.76%, 0.95%, 1.37%, 2.08%, 3.67%, 2.60%, and 1.60%, respectively[12][13][32] - The report also tracks the proximity of industry indices to their 250-day highs. Industries such as power equipment & new energy, non-ferrous metals, electronics, media, and machinery are closer to their 250-day highs, with distances of 1.69%, 0.82%, 2.65%, 2.74%, and 2.09%, respectively[13][15][32] - A separate analysis focuses on concept indices, including power generation equipment, gold, wind power, solar power, and energy storage, which are relatively close to their 250-day highs[15][17][32] - The report identifies 1233 stocks that reached 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days. The sectors with the highest number of such stocks are electronics (182 stocks), machinery (178 stocks), and basic chemicals (137 stocks). The sectors with the highest proportion of stocks reaching new highs are non-ferrous metals (54.84%), electronics (37.45%), and power equipment & new energy (31.09%)[19][20][33] - The report introduces a screening method for "stable new high stocks" based on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and trend sustainability. Stocks are selected based on metrics like the absolute value of 120-day price changes, cumulative absolute daily price changes over 120 days, and the average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days[23][26][33] - Using the above screening criteria, 50 stable new high stocks were identified, including companies like New Yisheng, Giant Network, and Lead Intelligent. The technology sector contributed 20 stocks, with electronics being the most represented industry. The manufacturing sector contributed 13 stocks, with machinery being the most represented industry[27][33][31]