农产品日报-20250926

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: ★★★ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil; ★★☆ for soybean and soybean meal; ★☆☆ for corn and live pigs; ☆☆☆ for eggs [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: None Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs, and provides investment suggestions based on the analysis [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean futures price continued to rebound with decreasing positions, outperforming imported soybeans, and the price difference widened. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, with weak quotes. Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. Focus on the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures continued to decline by 0.81% today. After Argentina's export policy was introduced on Monday, the futures price dropped significantly. As of Wednesday, the sales volume of related products reached the $7 billion limit, and Argentina cancelled the soybean tax exemption policy. During this period, China imported more than 2.2 million tons of Argentine soybeans. The soybean meal market is greatly affected by foreign policies, so continue to wait and see. In the long term, maintain a cautious bullish view on Dalian soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Argentina's agricultural policy fluctuated greatly this week, and China accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may tighten in Q1 next year, but the supply gap risk will ease. The EU decided to postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulations for one year, and the medium - to - long - term demand expectation for palm oil improved. Palm oil is in the production reduction cycle in Q4. The medium - term soybean and palm oil prices are expected to move within a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered to hedge against unexpected risks [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintained the pattern of strong oil and weak meal. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, affected by the seasonal decline in aquaculture feed demand and the low unit protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The oil - to - meal ratio of rapeseed products is expected to continue to rebound, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slow decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a very low level, and coastal oil mills may shut down on a large scale after the National Day. The rapeseed futures will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures opened low and closed high, rising 0.55% today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. As the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has been falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures increased positions by nearly 10,000 lots, and all contracts continued to decline to new lows. The spot price continued to weaken, reaching a new low this year, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and slaughter was high. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. Pay attention to when secondary fattening will enter the market again and the government's willingness to support the pig price. In the long term, if the reduction of fertile sows starts in September, it is expected to improve the pig price expectation in the second half of next year. Currently, the live pig futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is low, and the futures price is weak. The funds continued to reduce positions by nearly 50,000 lots. The spot price rebound since the peak season in September reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry's high - inventory problem requires deep capacity reduction. Consider taking long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]