政策扰动供需已变，价格触底回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal and coke is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal and coke market in the fourth quarter of 2025 will present a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate within a range. The low price point for the year has already appeared, and the low point in the second quarter still has strong support. Without further policy impetus, it will be difficult to break through the previous high point. The price center of coking coal may fluctuate around 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to possible policy intensification on the supply side, the actual performance of the demand side after the peak season, and the impact of macro - factors such as Sino - US negotiations and the "15th Five - Year Plan" policy expectations [4][79] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - In the coking coal market, after continuous decline in the first half of the year, it rebounded in the third quarter. In June, the base - difference repair and tightened safety supervision in coal mines drove the price up. In July, the market rose sharply due to the "anti - involution" news, and the exchange's position - limit measures cooled the market sentiment. In August, the release of the "No. 118 Document" increased concerns about the supply side and pushed up the price, which gradually turned into an oscillating trend in September. - In the coke market, with continuous over - capacity, the price followed the cost (coking coal price) fluctuations [11] 3.2 Coking Coal: Policy Disturbance Leads to Supply Decline and Price Bottoming - Out Rebound 3.2.1 Impact of Safety Supervision Policies, Decline in Domestic Production on a Quarter - on - Quarter Basis - In the first half of the year, the coking coal market declined due to an imbalance in supply and demand, with over - released supply being the core factor. After the Spring Festival, the coal mine start - up rate in Shanxi recovered rapidly. After reaching the annual high in mid - May, it gradually declined from late May. The reduction in production was mainly driven by non - profit factors. In June, the start - up rate dropped rapidly due to increased safety inspections and accidents. In July, although the "Safety Production Month" ended, the resumption of production was slow. The release of the "No. 118 Document" in July and the impact of the parade and National Day in the third quarter led to a decline in the start - up rate. In the fourth quarter, supply is expected to decline steadily [14][16] 3.2.2 Profit Recovery, Increase in Imports - In the first half of 2025, the decline in domestic coking coal prices led to a contraction in imports. In the third quarter, as domestic prices rebounded, import profits recovered, and import volume increased. For Mongolian coal, imports were high in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter due to price drops, and recovered in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to remain at a high level. For seaborne coal, imports were affected by price. In the third quarter, imports recovered as domestic prices rose. In the fourth quarter, except for Australian coal, imports from other sources are expected to change little, while Australian coal imports may increase [31][41] 3.2.3 Decline in Coal Mine Inventory - In the first half of the year, coal mine inventory accumulated due to high supply and low downstream inventory. In the third quarter, with the decline in the start - up rate in the main production areas and downstream restocking, coal mine inventory decreased significantly, and the overall inventory entered the destocking stage. In the fourth quarter, inventory may accumulate again due to weakening seasonal demand [52] 3.3 Coke: Cost Decline, but Profit Remains at a Low Level 3.3.1 Difficult to Change the Over - Capacity Pattern, Low Coking Profit - In the first half of the year, the decline in coking coal prices led to a decline in coke prices, and the contraction of coking profit was relatively limited. In the third quarter, although coke prices rose, coking coal prices rose more significantly. Coking profit remained at a low level. Supply increased slightly due to acceptable demand, and in the fourth quarter, coking coal supply may remain at the same level as the previous year. The coking industry still has an over - capacity problem, and the standardization of the J2604 contract may promote the transformation and upgrading of some coking enterprises [63] 3.3.2 Low Downstream Inventory, Decline in Exports - This year, the coking industry has maintained a low start - up rate, and the coke inventory of coking plants and steel mills has been low. In the third quarter, coking plant inventory decreased significantly due to downstream restocking. In the fourth quarter, steel mills are expected to maintain low - inventory operations, and total coke inventory may gradually accumulate. Although pig iron production has remained high since the second quarter, there is a risk of over - supply relative to actual demand [67] 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Summary - For coking coal, the annual supply peak has passed. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to slow down, but supply is unlikely to decline significantly without strong policy intervention. On the demand side, although pig iron production is high, the actual downstream acceptance is uncertain. - For coke, the price continues to follow the cost due to over - capacity. Although the current inventory is low and the supply - demand structure seems balanced, the over - capacity problem remains, and profit is difficult to recover. - Overall, the coal - coke market will show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and the coking coal price may fluctuate around 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton. The market needs to pay attention to policy, demand, and macro - factors [79]