螺矿产业链三季度报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Anti - involution policies will continue throughout the 15th Five - Year Plan, providing a bottom - support for industrial product prices. Domestic economy is under marginal pressure and requires more policy support. Overseas, the Fed has restarted the easing process, and the expectation of interest rate cuts this year is strong, which is beneficial for overseas manufacturing recovery and expanding domestic policy space. [10][80] - In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by the logic of expectation and real - world trading. The raw materials in the black industry chain are stronger than the finished products. Steel is mainly supported by cost and positive macro - expectations in the fourth quarter, and will operate in a volatile manner. [80] - Iron ore prices are supported by strong demand, but the accumulation of port inventories will restrict the upward space. It is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and strong manner in the short term, but will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Steel: In the third quarter, steel prices improved due to policy expectations and cost support. In July, prices rose significantly; in August, they fell due to the cooling of anti - involution and weak demand; in September, they bottomed out with policy support. [5][7] - Iron Ore: In the third quarter, iron ore prices strengthened due to policy expectations and strong demand. In July, prices rose significantly and then were under pressure but still trended strongly overall. [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestic Anti - involution: Since July, anti - involution has received high - level attention. It is expected to run through the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the long - term policy expectation of "anti - involution" supports industrial product prices. [10] - Fed Interest Rate Cut: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The market expects another two interest rate cuts this year. The impact on the black industry is relatively small. [13] - US Economic Performance: The US manufacturing and service PMIs in September were lower than expected. Retail sales and manufacturing output in August were strong, and the Q2 GDP was revised upwards. [20] - Domestic Economic Data: China's economic data in August showed marginal weakness. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment all missed expectations. Policy support is needed. [23] - August Social Financing: In August, social financing performance was weak, and credit demand was still weak. M2 growth stagnated, and M1 growth slowed. [30] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Terminal Demand - Real Estate: Real estate investment and sales continued to weaken, and the demand for construction steel remained weak. [31] - Infrastructure: Infrastructure investment growth slowed in the first eight months of 2025, but the proportion of special bonds invested in infrastructure increased, and there may be positive signals of marginal improvement. [38] - Automobiles: Automobile production and sales were stable. In August, production and sales increased year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also grew significantly. [41] - Excavators and Ships: In August 2025, excavator production and sales increased year - on - year. Ship exports from January to August increased by 24.4% year - on - year. [44] - Exports: In August 2025, steel exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Overall exports had some resilience, but attention should be paid to the pressure in the fourth quarter. [45] - Steel Demand - Rebar: In the third quarter, rebar demand was weak, and the weak pattern was difficult to change. [50] - Hot - Rolled Coils: In the third quarter, hot - rolled coil demand was resilient, but it may face challenges in the fourth quarter. [50] - Steel Supply - Steel Mills: Steel mills had good profits, and the blast furnace operating rate was high. In the peak season, high - level supply may continue, and attention should be paid to demand matching. [53][59] - Crude Steel Output: In August 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Global crude steel output in August increased slightly year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. [56] - Inventory - Steel: In the third quarter, steel inventory accumulated. Rebar inventory began seasonal destocking, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate. [63] - Iron Ore: In the third quarter, port inventory of iron ore was relatively balanced. In the fourth quarter, port inventory pressure may increase, and steel mill inventory remained low. [78] - Price Difference: In the third quarter, the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference was high and has now converged. It is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter. [64] - Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Supply: In August, iron ore imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The shipments of the four major mines recovered in the second quarter, and the production targets for the 2026 fiscal year were raised. [68][69] - Demand: In the third quarter, iron ore demand was stronger than last year. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output were high, but attention should be paid to downstream demand performance. [75] 4. Future Outlook - Macro - aspect: Anti - involution policies will support industrial product prices. The Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for overseas manufacturing and domestic policy space. Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and domestic policy space. [80] - Supply - Demand: In the fourth quarter, the black industry will be affected by expectations and reality. Steel will operate in a volatile manner, and iron ore prices will face adjustment pressure after the peak season. [80]