申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250926

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded narrowly. The prices of polyolefins generally fluctuate passively following the cost - end. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking, and also needs to pay attention to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7209, and 7231 respectively, with price increases of 27, 27, and 13, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.38%, and 0.18%. The trading volumes were 167193, 10346, and 48, and the open interests were 561860, 46507, and 169, with open interest changes of - 9915, 1516, and 4 [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6898, 6941, and 6914 respectively, with price increases of 21, 21, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.30%, and 0.06%. The trading volumes were 166035, 9614, and 198, and the open interests were 628037, 77359, and 1879, with open interest changes of - 8467, 890, and 137 [2]. - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 40, - 22, and 62, compared with previous values of - 40, - 36, and 76. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 27, and 16, compared with previous values of - 43, 10, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6485 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Mid - stream Spot: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (September 25, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 64.98 dollars per barrel, down 0.01 dollars or 0.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.06 - 65.34 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.42 dollars per barrel, up 0.11 dollars or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 68.42 - 69.68 dollars [2].