20250926申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250926

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate weakly in a wide range [2] Group 2: Report Core Views - Copper prices may be supported in the long - term as the Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit. Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term as the supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.4% lower. The supply of concentrates has been tight since the beginning of the year, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. The power industry and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand deficit and support copper prices in the long run. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed up 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales are growing positively, while the growth rate of home appliance output is slowing down, and the real estate market is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly in a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day closing price is 82,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 40 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 10,276 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 31.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 144,775 tons, and daily change is - 200 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day closing price is 20,760 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 10 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,664 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 2.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 517,150 tons, and daily change is 3,300 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day closing price is 22,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 105 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 53.93 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 44,400 tons, and daily change is - 1,375 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day closing price is 122,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,110 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 15,240 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 174.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 230,586 tons, and daily change is 132 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day closing price is 17,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 2,009 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 36.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 219,725 tons, and daily change is - 250 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day closing price is 273,710 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,040 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price is 34,390 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,695 tons, and daily change is 120 tons [2]