化工日报：橡胶成本端支撑仍存-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost - side support for rubber remains. The news of state reserve sales has narrowed the price difference between RU and NR, suppressing futures prices in the short term. Before the end of September, rainfall in major producing areas may support rubber costs and limit the decline of rubber prices. The concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories is over, and with a slight increase in domestic arrivals, the domestic inventory reduction is expected to slow down. The demand for downstream tires is in a seasonal peak, with an increase in tire factory operating rates and continuous raw material consumption, resulting in limited supply - demand contradictions. After the downstream purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the overall decline will be limited. For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply, and although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, a change of + 25 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2] - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3] - Production and Sales of Automobiles: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] - Sales of Heavy - Duty Trucks: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 84,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - duty truck market was about 708,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [3] - Rubber Exports in Cote d'Ivoire: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 20), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3230 yuan/ton (+ 55.38), the NR basis was 869.00 yuan/ton (+ 43.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 30), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2750 yuan/ton (- 30) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai latex was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the price difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.75 Thai baht/kg (- 0.75) [4] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 154,920 tons (+ 3,180), and the NR futures inventory was 44,553 tons (- 1,411) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On September 25, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 25), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,150 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 20), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1580 yuan/ton (- 41) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6] 3. Strategy - For RU and NR, due to the narrowing of the price difference caused by the news of state reserve sales and the short - term suppression of futures prices, the cost - side support may limit the decline of rubber prices. After the end of the concentrated replenishment of downstream tire factories and with a slight increase in arrivals, the inventory reduction will slow down. Although the demand is in a peak season, after the purchasing demand subsides, rubber prices are expected to weaken, but the decline is limited [7] - For BR, the restart of maintenance devices will increase supply. Although the demand is in a peak season, the raw material demand has decreased after the concentrated restocking of tire factories. There are concerns about cost - side drag, but the large price difference with natural rubber still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [7]