集运日报：MSK宣涨10月下旬运价，盘面显著上行，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损。-20250926

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK announced a price increase for late - October freight rates, causing the market to rise significantly. However, it is not recommended to add more positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak, and far - month contracts are stronger. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - losses. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3. Content Summaries 3.1 Freight Indexes - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [3]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [3]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [3]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than expected [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. 3.3 Market and Strategy - On September 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1173.0, up 3.99%, with a trading volume of 3.89 million lots and an open interest of 3.55 million lots, a decrease of 5414 lots from the previous day [5]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. Stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Pay attention to the market trend, do not hold positions stubbornly, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, each contract maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [5]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff issue continues to be postponed, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5]. - The Houthi armed forces launched a drone attack on Israel on September 24, causing at least 22 people to be injured [6]. - The Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [6].