申万期货品种策略日报：国债-20250926

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 25, the central bank carried out 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan; it also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan, which effectively alleviated the liquidity pressure. Amid the stock - bond seesaw effect, the scale of bond funds decreased slightly. The US Q2 GDP final value was significantly revised up, and the core PCE price index was also adjusted upward. The monetary market interest rates mostly rose on September 25, and US Treasury yields mostly increased. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but the central bank stated that the next policy adjustment needs to wait for the unified deployment of the central government. Considering the continued strength of the equity market, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury futures prices showed mixed performance. The T2512 contract fell 0.04%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates also showed mixed movements, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.6bp, the DR007 rate up 9.09bp, and the GC007 rate up 0.3bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - maturity Chinese Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.94bp to 1.89%, and the spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) Treasury bond yields was 41.54bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp, the 10 - year German Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10 - year Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 0.4bp [2] Macro News - On September 25, the central bank carried out 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan; it also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, achieving a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan, which effectively alleviated the liquidity pressure. China submitted a position paper on the special and differential treatment issue to the WTO, and does not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant Mexican measures. As of the end of August, the scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 36.25 trillion yuan, with a sharp monthly increase of 1.18 trillion yuan. The US Q2 GDP final value was significantly revised up to an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, and the core PCE price index was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.6% [3] Industry Information - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose. The weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending for various terms reached new highs in different periods. Most US Treasury yields increased, with the 2 - year yield rising 4.50bp, the 3 - year rising 5.08bp, the 5 - year rising 3.91bp, the 10 - year rising 1.93bp, and the 30 - year falling 0.40bp [3] Comment and Strategy - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to 1.805%. The central bank continued to inject medium - term liquidity through MLF operations. The short - end Shibor showed mixed performance, and the cross - festival funding situation tightened. Consumption and production growth rates declined in August, and the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase. The central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. The Fed restarted interest - rate cuts after a 9 - month pause. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, but it stated that the next policy adjustment needs to wait for the unified deployment of the central government. Given the continued strength of the equity market, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on long - term bonds and stay on the sidelines for short - term bonds [3]