农产品日报：供应压力持续释放，猪价维持震荡-20250926

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - For the pig industry, the supply pressure continues to be released, and the pig price maintains a volatile trend. The future supply of pigs is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1][2] - For the egg industry, the current inventory at each link is abundant, the boost from the Double Festival is basically over, and the large inventory pressure may suppress the spot price [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 12,685 yuan/ton, a change of -45.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.35% [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live pigs in Henan was 12.63 yuan/kg, a change of -0.16 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.88 yuan/kg, a change of -0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.29 yuan/kg, a change of +0.00 yuan/kg [1] - Wholesale market: On September 25, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.8% from yesterday; beef was 66.31 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2%; mutton was 61.87 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4%; eggs were 8.48 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1%; white - striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.9% [1] Market Analysis - Last week, the spot price dropped significantly, and the price of piglets also declined. The meeting targeting groups had little impact on the market. The future of live pigs will still follow the supply - demand logic. The continuous decline of corn and soybean meal has reduced the pig - raising cost. There is still a certain profit margin for self - breeding and self - raising, and the cost of fattening by purchasing piglets is advantageous, so the future supply of pigs is expected to increase [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Industry Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract yesterday was 3076 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +20.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.65% [3] - Spot: The spot price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.42 yuan/jin, a change of -0.05 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, a change of +0.00; in Hebei, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, a change of -0.11 [3] - Inventory: On September 25, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.9 days, an increase of 0.17 days from yesterday, an increase of 23.29%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days, an increase of 0.05 days from yesterday, an increase of 5.10% [3] Market Analysis - In terms of demand, last week, the terminal consumption was resistant to high prices, resulting in a decline in egg prices. Traders were cautious in purchasing, and each link accumulated inventory passively. The peak - season production of food enterprises is coming to an end, the procurement demand has declined significantly, and supermarkets and e - commerce are digesting the previously stocked inventory. The overall demand is gradually weakening. The large inventory pressure may suppress the spot price [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]