Minmetals Securities·2025-09-26 23:30Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The adjustment of the vehicle replacement policy will slightly weaken demand, but the reduction in vehicle purchase tax will promote early purchases, leading to a competitive demand scenario in Q4. As of September 10, 2025, the number of applications for vehicle replacement reached 8.3 million, indicating a significant policy-driven effect. Despite the adjustments in the replacement policy, the pressure from the tax reduction is expected to encourage consumers to purchase new energy vehicles earlier. The report forecasts that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 16.25 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 26% [2][18]. Monthly Focus - The adjustment of the vehicle replacement policy has increased application difficulty. Since June, applications for vehicle replacement have been suspended due to the exhaustion of funds, but recent funding has led to adjustments in the policy across various regions. The adjustments mainly include changes in application methods and subsidy standards, with some regions reducing the subsidy amount per vehicle [14][15]. - There is a significant funding gap for Q4, as the distribution of funds does not account for seasonal consumption patterns. The central government will allocate 69 billion yuan for Q4, which is the same as Q3, but the demand for vehicle consumption is typically stronger in the second half of the year, leading to an amplified funding gap for Q4 [16][17]. Key Data Tracking - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles was 49%, remaining stable compared to the previous month. However, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) experienced a decline for two consecutive months, primarily due to pressure on sales from major manufacturers [20][28]. - The report highlights that commercial vehicles and exports continue to maintain high growth rates, with new energy commercial vehicle sales in August reaching 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52% [34][35]. - The report also notes that the export of new energy vehicles has been robust, with August exports reaching 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 104% [46][48]. Industry and Company Changes - The report indicates progress in the overseas production capacity of automotive companies, with several manufacturers establishing production bases in regions like Brazil and Austria. Additionally, companies like Chery and HeSai have listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, while Dongfeng Group plans to privatize and spin off its Lantu brand to maintain its listing status [3][45].