聚酯产业风险管理日报：化工稳增长通知出台，EG实质影响有限-20250927

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers for ethylene glycol (EG) in the near - term are insufficient. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation for funds. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation for the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation has been further pressured under front - running trades. Since the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, it is not recommended to continue shorting before the expectation is realized. - The supply side of EG is operating at full capacity, with little chance of unexpected incremental supply and overall lacking supply elasticity. Considering the low inventory, relatively low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity of EG, the short - term downward price space is limited. However, if there are unexpected drivers from the supply side or the macro - environment, the upward price movement will be more elastic. - Currently, the supply - demand drivers for EG are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 4150 - 4350. A breakout requires cost - side and macro - level drivers. In terms of operations, due to short - term emotional suppression leading to an oversold situation, there is price support, and one can moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: EG is 4150 - 4450, PX is 6400 - 7100, PTA is 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips are 5600 - 6200. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.75% for EG, 12.56% for PX, 12.61% for PTA, and 9.81% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 3.2%, 27.4%, 19.0%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4320 - 4420. They can also buy EG2601P4100 put options to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 4180 - 4250. They can also sell EG2601P4100 put options to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the EG price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 50 - 80 [2]. 3.3 Market Data - Price Data: On September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $68.8 per barrel, up $0.2 from the previous day; Naphtha CFR Japan was at $608.5 per ton, up $2.5. There were various price changes for other products such as PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers [6][10]. - Spread Data: TA main - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day; EG main - contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. There were also changes in month - to - month spreads for PX, PTA, and EG [10]. - Processing Fee and Production - Sales Rate: The gasoline reforming spread was $29 per ton, up $4 from the previous day; POY profit was 121 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. The production - sales rates of polyester filaments, short - fibers, and slices all showed different degrees of change [10]. 3.4 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", with a limited expected impact on the EG supply side, and further details need to be monitored [4]. - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year EG plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, with an undetermined restart time, potentially reducing imports in October. A 400,000 - ton/year EG plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October, and a 200,000 - ton EG plant in Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October [9].