低基数助力8月工业利润转正，债市仍偏震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market remains volatile, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. 8 - month industrial profit turned positive due to a low base, and some counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be implemented soon. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and positive interactions in Sino - US trade relations are beneficial for future trade talks [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 0.60%, the 10 - year bond fell 0.07%, the 5 - year bond fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year bond fell 0.02% [4]. - From September 19th to September 26th, the 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 2 basis points, while the 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained flat [7]. - The logic of the treasury bond futures market is that the overall performance of the Chinese economy in August was lower than expected, and counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be introduced. The significant increase in industrial enterprise profits in August was due to the low base last year. The central bank will maintain liquidity, and Sino - US trade interactions are positive. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to conduct band operations [33][34]. Industrial Enterprise Data - From January to August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, reversing the downward trend since May. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in July. The increase in August was due to the low base in the same period last year [10]. - From January to August, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises was 89.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The operating income in August increased by 1.9%, 1.0 percentage point faster than in July [10]. - From January to August, the operating income profit margin of large - scale industrial enterprises was 5.24%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. Different industries had different profit margins, with the mining industry having a relatively high margin but a decline compared to the previous year [13]. - At the end of August, the asset - liability ratio of large - scale industrial enterprises was 58.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points. The asset - liability ratio of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 57.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [16]. - At the end of August, the average collection period of accounts receivable of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 71.2 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.9 days, reaching a new high since 2015 [20]. - From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.3%, showing a downward trend. Both China and the US have been destocking in recent months [23]. Real Estate Market - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 23.6 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From April to August, there were year - on - year declines. From September 1st to 25th, the average daily trading area was 22 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 12% due to the low base last year. The year - on - year data in the fourth quarter will face challenges [26]. Labor Market - In August, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 18.9%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 25 - 29 - year - olds was 7.2%, 0.3 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 30 - 59 - year - olds was 3.9%, remaining stable compared with the previous month and the same period last year [29]. Capital Market - This week, the overnight funding rate declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.41%, compared with 1.46% last week. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.69%, compared with 1.68% last week. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan after deducting the 300 - billion - yuan maturity, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased roll - over [31].