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公募REITs周报(第36期):曲折下行,换手率下降-20250927
Guoxin Securities·2025-09-27 08:39
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As market risk appetite continued to rise, the China Securities REITs Index fell 0.8% this week, with property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs averaging - 0.9% and - 0.8% respectively. All sectors closed down, with water conservancy facilities, municipal facilities, and affordable housing having the largest declines. The 9 - department joint issuance included community commercial infrastructure in the priority support scope for REITs, further expanding the underlying asset scope of REITs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - Index Performance: As of September 26, 2025, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 831.45 points, with a weekly decline of 0.8%, performing worse than the China Securities All - Bond Index (- 0.3%), the China Securities Convertible Bond Index (+ 0.9%), and the CSI 300 Index (+ 1.1%). Year - to - date, the performance order of major indices was: CSI 300 (+ 15.6%) > China Securities Convertible Bond Index (+ 15.3%) > China Securities REITs Index (+ 5.3%) > China Securities All - Bond Index (+ 0.0%). In the past year, the return of the China Securities REITs Index was 5.6% with a volatility of 7.2%. Its return was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index; its volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index [2][7][8]. - Market Value and Turnover: The total market value of REITs decreased to 219 billion yuan on September 26, a decrease of 2.5 billion yuan from last week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.33%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. - REITs Performance by Attribute and Type: From the perspective of different project attributes, property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs had average weekly changes of - 0.9% and - 0.8% respectively. All REITs sectors closed down, with water conservancy facilities, municipal facilities, and affordable housing having the largest declines. The top three REITs in terms of weekly gains were Bosera Jinkai Industrial Park REIT (+ 1.64%), CITIC Construction Investment SPIC New Energy REIT (+ 0.98%), and CICC Liandong Science and Technology Innovation REIT (+ 0.71%) [3][16][20]. - Trading Activity and Fund Flow: New infrastructure REITs had the highest trading activity this week, with an average daily turnover rate of 1.1%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume ratio this week, accounting for 26.3% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were CJG First Agriculture REIT (14.67 million yuan), Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (10.93 million yuan), and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (8.37 million yuan) [3][22][23]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance As of September 26, 2025, there were 2 REITs products in the accepted stage, 1 in the in - inquiry stage, 3 in the feedback - received stage, 8 products that had passed and were awaiting listing, and 11 first - issued products that had passed and were listed [25]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - Valuation Indicators: REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. As of September 26, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.2%. From the equity perspective, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to judge the valuation of REITs. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and the fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated by the cash - flow discount method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations [27]. - Valuation by Project Type: Different project types of REITs had different relative net value premium rates, P/FFO, IRR, and annualized dividend rates. For example, affordable housing had a relative net value premium rate of 44.1%, P/FFO of 34.7, IRR of 3.4%, and an annualized dividend rate of 3.3% [28]. - Comparison with Benchmarks: As of September 26, 2025, the dividend rate of property - type REITs was 81 basis points higher than the average dividend rate of CSI Dividend stocks, and the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs had a spread of 173 basis points compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield [30]. 3.4 Industry News - Policy Update: The Ministry of Commerce, together with eight other departments, issued a notice including community commercial infrastructure in the priority support scope for REITs, which helps expand the underlying asset scope of REITs and solve the capital problem in community commercial development [4][35]. - Approved REITs Projects: Huaxia China Overseas Commercial REIT was approved, providing a model for the transformation and upgrading of traditional real - estate enterprises. Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT was officially approved for issuance, with its underlying assets having obvious location advantages. Shenyang International Software Park Public - Offering REIT was approved, being the first successful public - offering REIT project in Northeast China [35].