“反内卷”再强化生产自律，煤价震荡走强趋势明确

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to show a clear upward trend due to structural supply issues and seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" policy promoting production discipline [7][8]. - The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the coal sector, especially as prices stabilize and begin to rise in response to seasonal demand and supply constraints [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Operational Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of production discipline and the impact of government policies on coal supply, which are expected to tighten supply further [7]. - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is anticipated to support non-electric coal demand, with winter stockpiling expected to boost thermal coal demand [7][8]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at the port is 707 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2 RMB/ton [8]. - The report notes that the price of coking coal at the port has increased by 80 RMB/ton, indicating a strong demand in the steel sector [8]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.651 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.53% [8]. - The report indicates that coal inventories at northern ports are at a phase of low levels, which may lead to further price increases if not replenished effectively [7][8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The average daily iron water output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4236 million tons, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.56% [8]. - The report highlights the correlation between coal prices and downstream demand from the steel industry, which is expected to remain strong [8]. 5. Recent Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report suggests focusing on high-elasticity stocks such as Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控煤业, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [7][8].