债券市场周报：日历效应看持券过节操作思路-20250927

Report Overview - Report Title: Bond Market Weekly Report - Operational Ideas for Holding Bonds over the Holiday from the Perspective of Calendar Effect - Report Date: September 27, 2025 - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, the marginal impact of incremental negative factors in the bond market may ease, but there is still uncertainty in the post - holiday bond market performance. Currently, the problem with the capital gain strategy is that the odds of going long are insufficient due to the constraint of interest rate cut expectations. It is recommended to adopt a short - end coupon strategy for holding bonds over the holiday. Holding short - term (less than 2 years), medium - to high - grade credit bonds and certificates of deposit over the holiday is a more conservative strategy [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Observation 1.1 Calendar Effect - The calendar effect of interest rate trends in October is weak. After the National Day in most years, interest rates tend to rise, mainly due to the influence of broad fiscal policies and policy expectations in October. Except for 2022 (when fundamental data was weak and interest rates declined rapidly) and 2024 (when the equity market exhausted its positive factors after a package of policies and interest rates fluctuated), interest rates in most years since 2019 faced significant upward pressure, driven by factors such as inflation expectations, supply acceleration expectations, broad fiscal expectations, and the disappointment of double - rate cuts. This year, the long - and short - term factors are more complex, and the probability of bond market fluctuations is high [11][16]. 1.2 Post - holiday Key Points - The downward space of long - term interest rates after the holiday depends on the central bank's interest rate cut and bond - buying rhythm. According to the Q3 monetary policy meeting, "implementing and refining" is the main tone of the central bank's current monetary policy. The market's expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut after the holiday should be neither overly pessimistic nor overly optimistic. - The capital market game will be complex around the short - term results of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and the next round of China - US negotiations. - After the holiday, the market's expectation of the fund fee rate new regulations will become clearer, and the number of panic - driven adjustments in the bond market may decrease [17][18][20]. 1.3 Technical Analysis - Since July, the rebound strength of interest rates has gradually weakened. The rebound time of the 10 - year Treasury active bond has become shorter, and the rebound amplitude has become smaller. The TL price has broken through the intraday low in March, forming an "M - head" double - top pattern. The overall market sentiment is still fragile. The adjustment of secondary perpetual bonds has accelerated, and the pressure on long - term credit bonds remains to be released. From the carry perspective, it is more conservative to hold short - term (less than 2 years), medium - to high - grade credit bonds and certificates of deposit over the holiday [21][24]. 2. Bond Market Asset Performance - The report provides multiple charts related to bond market asset performance, including the Treasury yield curve, Treasury bond yields, certificate of deposit yields, etc., but no specific text summary of these data is provided [27][28][29]. 3. High - frequency Entity Tracking 3.1 Price - related - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated slightly downward, while international crude oil prices rose. Brent crude oil rose by $1.98 per barrel, and WTI crude oil rose by $1.41 per barrel. Prices generally increased, except for a slight decline in pork prices. The average wholesale price of vegetables rose by 0.1 yuan per kilogram, and that of fruits rose by 0.11 yuan per kilogram. The average wholesale price of beef rose by 0.72 yuan per kilogram, and that of mutton rose by 0.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.06 yuan per kilogram [36]. 3.2 Industry - related - This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined. The prices of glass and coking coal showed different trends, and the supply side recovered. The futures closing price of glass rose by 36 yuan per ton, while that of coking coal decreased by 35.5 yuan per ton. The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly by 0.47%, and the petroleum asphalt operating rate increased by 5.7% [41]. 3.3 Investment and Real Estate - related - This week, the transaction volume data in the investment and real estate sector showed signs of recovery. The transaction land area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities both increased. The decline of the second - hand housing listing price index slowed down but remained at a historical low. The cumulative value of housing completion area increased compared with last month but was still lower than the historical average [52]. 3.4 Travel and Consumption - related - This week, travel and consumption data were mixed. The subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while that in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The movie box office revenue increased and exceeded the historical average. The retail sales of passenger cars increased by 9.2% compared with the same period last month, while the number of domestic flights decreased [56].