Core Viewpoints - The adjustment phase in A-shares is not expected to lead to a major downward risk in the medium term, with a high probability of a "red October" following the current adjustments, as long-term policy layouts are approaching and technological catalysts continue to persist [3][5][6] - The economic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains uncertain, but it is not expected to affect the anticipated upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [3][5][6] - The narrative of a bull market is still valid, with the current phase characterized by increased allocation of equity by residents and improvements in cyclical fundamentals [3][5] Short-term Market Outlook - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, which may stabilize and elevate market expectations after the current adjustments [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts are expected to be limited in the fourth quarter of 2025, while technological industry catalysts are on an upward trend, particularly in AI, both domestically and internationally [6][7] - The ongoing adjustments are likely to improve short-term cost-effectiveness indicators, setting the stage for the "red October" market to unfold [6][7] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, technological industry catalysts are expected to dominate over cyclical catalysts, although there may be short-term cost-effectiveness issues in tech growth [7][8] - Spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including verification of demand-side dynamics and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak [7][8] - The long-term cost-effectiveness of the tech industry may reach low levels, similar to previous market conditions in late 2013 and late 2019, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase [7][8] Structural Outlook - The trend in tech growth is expected to remain dominant, with better performance in high-low switches within tech sectors compared to switches between growth and value [8][9] - New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with significant growth potential in sectors like overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and advanced manufacturing technologies [8][9] - The structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market is critical, with a focus on industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [8][9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, benefiting from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the strengthening of new economic trends [9]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/09/22-25/09/27)：调整后，红十月
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-27 13:34