高频经济周报（2025.9.21-2025.9.27）：人员流动回落，需求环比改善-20250927

Report Information - Report Date: September 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: High - frequency Economic Weekly (2025.9.21 - 2025.9.27) [3] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [1] - Research Support: Wang Zheyi [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report shows that personnel flow has declined while demand has improved month - on - month. Industrial production is generally stable, personnel and freight flows have changed, consumption shows a mixed picture, investment in construction and the real - estate market has improved, exports have seen some fluctuations, and there have been some important policies and events during the period [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - class Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. - Most stock indices rose. The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. - Commodities showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. - Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB. The Japanese yen had the largest decline, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [3] 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% month - on - month, the weekly operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10%, the weekly blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47%, and the weekly crude steel output decreased by 0.67%. - In the real - estate chain, the weekly operating rate of rebar decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65%, the operating rate of float glass remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operation rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. - In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48%, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51%. - In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58%, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% [3] 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of domestic flight operations decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of international flight operations decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volume in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. - Freight prices decreased slightly. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [3] 4. Consumption - Automobile wholesale and retail sales increased year - on - year. In the previous period, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car market wholesale and retail sales were 6.00% and 9.00% respectively, and both the 4WMA of the wholesale year - on - year growth rate and the 4WMA of the retail year - on - year growth rate increased. - The film box office and the number of moviegoers decreased. The weekly film box office decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. - Agricultural product prices showed a mixed performance. The weekly price of pork decreased by 0.31%, while the weekly price of vegetables increased by 4.23% [3] 5. Investment - Construction showed good performance. The weekly cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts, the weekly cement price index increased by 2.97%, and the weekly cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. - The real - estate market improved. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. The transaction areas of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [3] 6. Exports - Port throughput increased slightly. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.2%. - Most shipping indices declined. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and the CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [3] 7. Important Policies/Events - On September 22, the LPR quotation remained unchanged. - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the development of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, without involving short - term policy adjustments. - On September 24, the central bank announced an operation of 600 billion MLF on September 25. - On September 26, the central bank's third - quarter monetary policy meeting continued to emphasize a "moderately loose" monetary policy [3]