日历效应系列一：国庆节的先抑后扬

Group 1 - The report highlights that the National Day holiday has a significant calendar effect, with a tendency for the market to decline before the holiday and rise afterward, indicating a pattern in trading behavior and economic cycles [1][9][8] - Statistical analysis shows that the win rates and median returns for the Shanghai Composite Index are generally negative in the days leading up to the holiday, while they turn positive in the days following it, particularly with a win rate exceeding 80% in the first five days after the holiday [1][9][10] - The report suggests that the best buying opportunity occurs in the two days before the National Day holiday, followed by a rapid market rebound post-holiday, supported by increased trading volume [2][3][4] Group 2 - The report identifies that sectors such as food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals show strong performance before the holiday, while post-holiday, there is an increased focus on large financial sectors [4][12][13] - It notes that the market dynamics shift from large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks before the holiday to small-cap stocks showing greater elasticity and performance after the holiday [3][4][25] - The underlying factors influencing these trends include risk expectations related to the holiday, quarterly settlement demands, and changes in investor behavior due to holiday breaks [2][3][4]