基建景气或正修复：每周高频跟踪20250927-20250927

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth week of September, the peak-season effect on the demand side was gradually released, especially the investment-related indicators showed a month-on-month recovery. Inflation-wise, food prices stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of exports, both the CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline month-on-month, while port freight volume remained high and volatile. Industrially, industrial electricity consumption decreased before the holiday, coal consumption entered the off-season, and the increase in the operating rate slowed down. In investment, the price increases of cement and rebar expanded, and the operating rate of asphalt accelerated, indicating that the infrastructure investment climate may be improving. In the real estate sector, the sales of new homes further soared while second-hand homes remained stable month-on-month. Overall, the "Golden September" was mediocre, and the year-on-year growth of new homes remained negative [2][32]. - For the bond market, production weakened marginally before the holiday, but the signs of investment stabilization became more prominent this week. The release of peak-season investment demand, the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in costs may boost the prices of midstream investment products. Attention should be paid to the month-on-month improvement of PPI. Although the "Golden September" was mediocre in terms of real estate sales and investment indicators, demand began to improve in the last week of September. After the holiday, attention should be paid to its sustainability. Especially in October, the weather is conducive to construction, and policy-based financial tools are expected to be implemented, so the fourth quarter may be the period when the "broad credit" effect is realized. Short-term macro expectations may still disturb the bond market sentiment [2][32]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inflation-related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week (September 22 - 26), the average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.94% month-on-month and continued to fall. Vegetable and fruit prices rose. The 200-index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.41% and 0.48% month-on-month, respectively, ending the decline [7]. Import and Export-related - The CCFI and SCFI indices continued to decline. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 2.93% month-on-month, and the SCFI decreased by 6.98% month-on-month, continuing the downward trend. The demand for China's export container transportation weakened, and the freight rates in the ocean shipping market continued to adjust. Among them, the demand on the North American route had not improved, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. The freight rates on the West and East Coast routes of the United States decreased by 10.8% and 6.7% month-on-month, respectively. In terms of port freight volume, from September 15 to September 21, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 0.18% and 0.14% month-on-month, respectively, and the year-on-year increases were 12.95% and 18.76%, respectively, with a significant expansion of the increase, indicating that the export boom remained high [9]. - The BDI index continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. This week, the BDI and CDFI indices increased by 2.2% and 1.7% month-on-month, respectively, continuing the upward trend. Before the holiday, the coal cargo volume increased, and the typhoon affected the ship turnover, driving up the bulk shipping rental prices [9]. Industry-related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.6% month-on-month (2.6% the previous week). In terms of demand, this week, the typhoon brought heavy rainfall to the South China coast, effectively alleviating the high temperature in the south. Coupled with the maintenance of power plant units, the civilian electricity load significantly decreased, and coal consumption entered the off-season. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream industrial enterprises would enter a centralized shutdown period, and industrial electricity demand would also weaken accordingly [13][15]. - The price of rebar increased slightly, and the inventory reduction accelerated. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.2% month-on-month (0.6% the previous week). The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% month-on-month, with an accelerated reduction. This week, both the factory and social inventories of rebar decreased, and the apparent demand rebounded. According to Jinlian Chuang statistics, the rebar production has been continuously decreasing since September. In some regions, the profit decreased, and steel mills actively reduced production. The supply side shrank significantly, and the dual-energy control policy fermented in some regions, restricting the release of production capacity. The survey showed that as of the end of September, the terminal procurement volume in East China had only recovered to 92% of the same period last year, and it was still less than 90% in North and Northeast China. The "Golden September" was mediocre. Looking forward to October, as engineering projects enter the year-end sprint stage, attention should be paid to the demand performance of rebar [15]. - The increase in copper prices slightly expanded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Nonferrous Copper and LME Copper increased by 0.66% and 0.57% month-on-month, respectively, maintaining an upward trend. This week, the suspension of copper mines in Indonesia led to an expectation of supply contraction, the social inventory of Shanghai copper decreased, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December increased, all of which boosted copper prices [17]. - The increase in glass futures narrowed. At the beginning of the week, the glass trading was mediocre. During the week, boosted by macro expectations, manufacturers generally raised their price expectations significantly, and the downstream procurement rhythm accelerated accordingly, resulting in a significant increase in the market price. However, the actual improvement in the glass demand side was limited [17]. Investment-related - The price increase of cement significantly expanded, supported by both cost and demand. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 2.0% month-on-month (0.01% the previous week). Recently, the cost of cement raw materials has increased, the demand in the traditional peak season has been gradually released, and environmental protection policies require some regions to implement staggered kiln shutdowns, jointly driving up the general increase in cement prices [21]. - In the fourth week of September, the sales volume of new homes increased at an accelerated pace month-on-month but was lower year-on-year. From last Friday to this Thursday (September 19 - 25), the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.793 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 52.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. New homes entered the end-of-month sprint stage and improved at an accelerated pace compared with the previous week, but the year-on-year performance was still low, and the overall performance was mediocre. The sales of second-hand homes decreased slightly. This week, the transaction area of second-hand homes in 17 cities was 1.973 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% (61.6% last week), with the upward momentum weakening marginally [23]. Consumption-related - The retail sales of passenger cars turned positive year-on-year in the first three weeks of September. According to the Passenger Car Association, from September 1 to 21, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month. The retail growth rate of passenger cars improved in the third week, but to some extent, it was supported by the low base caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in mid-September last year, and the market trend was generally stable [25]. - The increase in crude oil prices expanded. As of Friday, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 5.2% and 4.9% month-on-month, respectively, turning from a decline to an increase. During the week, the uncertainty of Iraq's crude oil export supply and the month-on-month decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories supported the oil prices [25].