固收深度报告20250927：从42家上市银行半年报解读银行债券投资“攻守道”

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External environment factors such as interest rate fluctuations, bond supply - demand, and policy orientation jointly impact bond investment returns. In H1 2025, the bond investment of 42 listed banks showed certain characteristics in scale, structure, and profit and loss, but there are still challenges in maintaining stable returns in the future [1]. - The overall bond investment scale of 42 listed banks expanded steadily in H1 2025. There were differences in the investment structure among different types of banks, with state - owned banks and city commercial banks having stable growth in the bond allocation portfolio, while joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks increased their efforts in the bond trading portfolio. The bond investment portfolio generally presented a pattern of "stable foundation and flexible gain" [1]. - The coupon income of 42 listed banks was generally stable in H1 2025 but showed a slight year - on - year decline. The fair value change loss was significant, and the investment income increased. However, the bond investment of the banking industry still faces pressure to maintain stable returns [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 42 Listed Banks' Bond Investment Volume - Overall Bond Investment Scale: Steady Expansion: In H1 2025, the total scale of the three types of bond - type financial assets of 42 listed banks showed a steady expansion trend. The growth of debt investment - type financial assets measured at amortized cost was relatively slow, while the growth of trading financial assets measured at fair value and included in current profits and losses was relatively large, indicating that banks increased the proportion of trading positions [9]. - Differentiated Bond Investment Distribution Structures among Different Bank Types: In H1 2025, state - owned banks and city commercial banks showed stable growth in the bond allocation portfolio, which may be related to their participation in the primary - market issuance of important national and regional bond varieties. Joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks slightly weakened their bond allocation power but significantly increased their efforts in the bond trading portfolio, showing a differentiated feature of "stable allocation by large banks and prominent trading flexibility by small and medium - sized banks" [13]. - Bond Investment Allocation Tilted towards Government - Related Bonds: In H1 2025, commercial banks increased their allocation of government - related bonds, with an average month - on - month increase of about 10% for state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks, and a slightly smaller increase for rural commercial banks. The allocation of financial bonds and other bonds was differentiated. All banks held a relatively large scale of government - related bonds, followed by financial bonds and credit - related bonds [18]. - Correlation between Financial Asset Types and Bond Variety Structures: The banking industry maintained a stable growth of interest - rate bonds in the bond allocation portfolio and increased the allocation of credit bonds, while the allocation of financial bonds was relatively weak. In the bond trading portfolio, interest - rate bonds and financial bonds were the core varieties, with a more significant increase than credit bonds, showing a "stable foundation and flexible gain" pattern [22]. 3.2 42 Listed Banks' Bond Investment Profit and Loss - Coupon Income: Generally Stable and Still the Main Source of Income: In H1 2025, the total coupon income of 42 listed banks decreased slightly year - on - year. Although the scale of held - to - maturity bonds increased, the decline in the coupon rate of newly issued bonds led to a decrease in coupon income. In the future, coupon income is still expected to be the main source of bond investment income for commercial banks [26]. - Fair Value Change Loss: Losses in the Trading Level: In H1 2025, the total fair value change loss of 42 listed banks decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that it was difficult to obtain capital gains through short - term trading in the volatile bond market, and there were floating losses in bond trading [28]. - Investment Income: Growth in All Bank Types: In H1 2025, the actual investment income of 42 listed banks in the bond field increased significantly year - on - year. Although the book value appreciation of bond - type trading financial assets and other debt investment - type financial assets was not as good as that of the previous year, banks could still increase their investment income by selling floating - profit old bonds and waiting for the maturity of high - coupon bonds [31]. 3.3 Attribution and Summary - External Environment Driving Factors: Interest Rate Fluctuations, Bond Supply - Demand, and Policy Orientation Jointly Impact Bond Investment Returns: In H1 2025, the "more adjustments and fewer opportunities" bond market environment led to a general decline in the prices of existing bonds, resulting in a significant year - on - year decline in the fair value change loss of listed banks' bond investment. The supply of national bonds, local government bonds, and policy - based financial bonds increased, but the coupon rate of newly issued bonds decreased, leading to a decline in coupon income. Regulatory policies indirectly affected bond investment performance [35]. - Banking Industry's Bond Investment Pressure and Future Outlook - Overall Income Shows a Positive Trend but There Are Still Hidden Concerns: In H1 2025, the actual bond investment income of 42 listed banks increased slightly year - on - year, but the coupon income faced downward pressure in the interest - rate downward cycle, and it was more difficult to obtain spread income through band trading. Since H2 2025, the "stock - strong and bond - weak" pattern has emerged, and the loss caused by fair value change will be more obvious [3]. - Different Bank Types Show Differentiated Performance, and State - owned Banks' Pressure Is Relatively Controllable: State - owned banks can maintain a certain profit - making ability in the low - interest - rate volatile bond market due to their advantages in bond allocation and trading portfolios. Joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks are more vulnerable, and they may increase their capital allocation in the equity market, commodity market, and related structured fixed - income products in the future [3].