Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, the main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern. The low inventory in cold storage supported the market, and the demand recovered during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. The market generally believed that the number of bagged apples in the new season was slightly lower than the previous season. The purchase price of early - maturing apples in the Northwest was higher than last year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji was likely to be higher. The market might realize the previous减产 expectations, and the later driving logic would shift to the demand side. The current market might be at the top range, and it was recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In Q3, the main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern. The remaining inventory in cold storage was low, and the supply was concentrated in Shandong. The market generally believed that the number of bagged apples in the new season was slightly lower than the previous season. The purchase price of early - maturing apples in the Northwest was higher than last year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji was likely to be higher, keeping the market at a high - level shock [7]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - Low Inventory at the End of Clearance: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The cold - storage supply was mainly concentrated in Shandong, with mostly poor - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the new - season apples were gradually being unbagged, with small fruit sizes, and farmers had high price expectations [11]. - Good Transaction during Festival Stocking: The demand recovered during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays. As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 1.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 percentage points, and the de - stocking rate was 98.24%. The de - stocking progress of apples in the origin would only be significantly improved when the price dropped significantly [14][18]. - Decrease in Fresh Apple Imports in August: In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.33%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.99%. It was expected that the import volume in Q4 would decline [21]. - Recovery of Fresh Apple Exports in Q3: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. It was expected that the export volume in Q4 2025 would increase quarter - on - quarter, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [24]. - Seasonal Fruits Boost Apple Demand: Seasonal fruits were gradually leaving the market, which was beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The price of apples was affected by substitute fruits such as pears and seasonal fruits. The price of apples in 2025 showed a trend of rising first and then falling, remaining at a high level overall [27][29]. - Stable and Strong Price of High - Quality Goods: The current origin price was stable and strong, higher than the same period last year. The storage profit of high - quality goods in Qixia was 0.29 yuan per catty. The sales of cold - storage apples were approaching the end, and the later market fluctuations were limited. Farmers had high price expectations for the new - season apples, and the enthusiasm for storage might increase [34]. - Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption: According to five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases were mostly concentrated in the second half of the year, including September, November, and December. The months with a high probability of price decreases were April, August, and October [37][38]. - New - Season Apples Being Unbagged: The new - season late - maturing apples in the production areas were gradually entering the unbagging stage. The fruit size of late - maturing apples in Shaanxi was small, and the purchase was expected to start around the National Day. The purchase price of new - season late - maturing Fuji in Shaanxi might be higher than the same period last year [40]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The main contract of apple futures, AP2601, showed a strong and volatile pattern in Q3. The low inventory supported the market, and the demand recovered during the festivals. The market might realize the previous减产 expectations, and the later driving logic would shift to the demand side. The current market might be at the top range, and it was recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44][45].
新季苹果陆续摘袋，盘面或兑现减产预期
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-27 23:30