Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In Q3 2025, pulp futures first rose and then fell, currently maintaining low - level fluctuations. The import volume is stable, supplementing domestic wood pulp supply. The domestic pulp port inventory has decreased after reaching a high. In October, the new domestic pulp production capacity may increase, dragging down the pulp price rebound. The theoretical arrival cost in October will increase due to the increase in the outer - market price of imported broad - leaf pulp in August, which may support the spot price. However, the low gross profit margin of the downstream base paper industry restricts high - price transactions in the pulp market, and the price is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize. The operation suggestion is to wait for the end of the correction and consider a buy - on - dips strategy [1][2][32]. 3) Summary According to the Directory Part One: Market Review - Market Phases: Q3 can be divided into two stages. From July 1st to July 25th, there was a bottom - up rebound as international pulp mills raised prices and the general rise of industrial products drove the pulp market. From July 28th to September 23rd, the price dropped from a high as the base paper industry's price fluctuated weakly, the profit improvement of most downstream paper types was insufficient, and the downstream demand did not improve significantly during the conversion between the traditional off - season and peak season [7]. Part Two: Pulp Fundamental Analysis - Import Volume: In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 613,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.12%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 5.7405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in August was 1.2577 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.43%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 11.1521 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.71%. The overall import volume was stable, supplementing domestic wood pulp supply [1][13]. - Outer - Market Quotation: In August 2025, the European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. The inventory was 707,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.34%. The inventory days were 26 days, 3 days more than the same period last year. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, and Chile's Arauco also raised its wood pulp outer - market quotation. The increase in theoretical arrival cost in October may support the spot price of imported hardwood pulp [17]. - Domestic Port Inventory: The domestic pulp port inventory decreased after reaching a high. The weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9896 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.49% [2][18]. - Downstream Operating Load Rate: The operating load rate of different pulp types varied. For domestic hardwood pulp, the industry's operating load rate increased by 1 percentage point; for domestic chemimechanical pulp, it remained flat. For non - wood pulp, the bamboo pulp industry's operating load rate increased by 6 percentage points, while the bagasse pulp industry's decreased by 1 percentage point [23]. - Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Profit Margin: In September 2025, the arrival cost was $720/ton. As of September 25th, the average spot price of Silver Star was about 5,645 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 4.46%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week. It is expected to remain at a low level [27]. - Price Trends of Softwood and Hardwood Pulp: The spot market of imported wood pulp continued to diverge. As of September 25th, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,587 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.45% [30]. Part Three: Future Outlook The situation in Q3 is summarized, and it is pointed out that in October, the new domestic pulp production capacity may increase, dragging down the pulp price rebound. The increase in the outer - market price of imported hardwood pulp in August may support the spot price. However, due to the low gross profit margin of the downstream base paper industry, high - price transactions in the pulp market are restricted, and the price is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the downstream demand to stabilize, and a buy - on - dips strategy can be considered after the correction ends [32][34].
纸浆季报：低位运行，等待需求企稳
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-27 23:30