Minsheng Securities·2025-09-27 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry by implementing precise capacity and production controls, promoting resource allocation to leading enterprises, and achieving dynamic balance in supply and demand [3][7]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will remain on capacity regulation, which is expected to restore profitability for steel companies, particularly benefiting leading firms from the new regulatory measures [3][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][9]. - The report details price changes for various steel products, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, indicating a general downward trend in prices [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 94,700 tons week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 121,200 tons to 10.88 million tons [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.2044 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 104,100 tons [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes a decline in profitability for plate products, with the gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel changing by +3 CNY/ton, -36 CNY/ton, and -20 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. - Electric arc furnace steel showed a gross margin increase of 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4]. - It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel for potential investment opportunities [3].