Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q3 2025 market was dominated by the "anti - involution" policy. The first - stage goal of "anti - involution" has been achieved, and the industry is moving towards the second - stage goal. The second - stage goal of capacity clearance gives an imagination space for the price to reach above 60,000 yuan/ton [3][12]. - The price increase in Q3 was supported by factors such as unexpected overseas demand, the "buy - on - rising" psychology of downstream enterprises, and the compression of downstream profits. However, the demand in Q4 is not optimistic [33][36][42]. - The price outlook depends on the progress of the platform company. If the platform company is established, the spot price is likely to rise, but considering the weakening fundamentals, the price may reach a limit of 60,000 yuan/ton. If the platform company is not established, the price may move towards 45,000 yuan/ton [105][110]. Summary by Related Catalogs 25Q3 Market Review - In H1 2025, the market was mainly based on fundamental trading, while in Q3 2025, it was dominated by trading the "anti - involution" policy. Polysilicon is the only product with clear policy guidance since the "anti - involution" [3]. - The first - stage goal of "anti - involution" is to prevent selling products below cost, which is a "temporary solution". The second - stage goal is to achieve permanent clearance of excess capacity through measures such as storage or energy consumption, which is a "fundamental solution" [8]. - The top - level design includes the revision of relevant laws, comments from the People's Daily, and important meetings chaired by the President. The implementation is led by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with the photovoltaic industry association organizing industry self - discipline. The first - stage goal has been completed, and the industry is moving towards the second - stage goal [11][12]. Second - Stage Goals - Capacity Storage and Shuffle Fund: Leading polysilicon enterprises plan to form a fund platform company to acquire, integrate, and exit redundant silicon material capacity. The current total industry capacity is about 3.5 million tons, and a 60 - 70% market operating rate needs to be maintained to achieve supply - demand balance. The investment cost of polysilicon is about 6 - 8 billion yuan/ton. The capital source is the acquirer's own funds plus bank loans or other financing methods. Some investors expect the long - term polysilicon price to run above 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. - Energy Consumption Standards: The government uses energy consumption standards to limit the capacity scale. The new energy consumption standards for polycrystalline silicon have been revised several times, and the final draft was released on September 16. 83.76% of the production can meet the third - level standard, and existing enterprises can adjust their energy consumption by reducing the density. A 12 - month transition period is recommended [22]. Price Trends and Their Causes - Price Increases: The mainstream transaction price of first - tier enterprises' dense materials for polysilicon has risen from the bottom of 33 - 34 yuan/kg to the current 50 - 52 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and components have also increased [23]. - Reasons for Price Increases: Overseas demand in Q3 exceeded expectations, with factors such as the expected cancellation of export tax rebates leading to a rush to export, battery shortages overseas, and India's tax reduction policy. Downstream enterprises showed a "buy - on - rising" psychology, and the price increase in polysilicon was mainly achieved by squeezing downstream profits [33][36][42]. Future Fundamental Deductions - Domestic Market: From January to August, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 230.61GW, with a year - on - year decrease of 55% in August. The export volume of components and batteries increased. However, the component tender volume decreased significantly from April to mid - September, and the mechanism electricity price was lower than expected. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2025 is 298GWac, a year - on - year increase of 7% [35][48][52]. - European Market: The new photovoltaic installed capacity in Germany, Italy, and Poland decreased slightly, while that in France and Spain increased. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in Europe in 2025 is 59GWac, remaining the same as the previous year. The export volume of Chinese components to Europe decreased from January to August, but increased in August. The European component inventory decreased, and it is difficult to replenish stocks on a large scale [58]. - US Market: The new photovoltaic installed capacity in the US from January to June was 16.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 3%. After the signing of the "Big and Beautiful Act", it is expected that there will be a rush to install household photovoltaics in the second half of 2025, and the household photovoltaic market will shrink continuously after 2026. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in the US in 2025 is 37GWac, a year - on - year increase of 4% [70][73]. - Indian Market: The new photovoltaic installed capacity in India from January to July was 21.15GW, a year - on - year increase of 52%. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in India in 2025 is 35GWac, a year - on - year increase of 43%. India's policies will have a negative impact on China's exports in the long term [77]. - Middle East and Africa: From January to August 2025, China's component exports to the Middle East decreased by 13% year - on - year, while those to Africa increased by 47% year - on - year. The predicted new photovoltaic installed capacity in the Middle East and Africa in 2025 is 18GWac and 3GWac respectively, with year - on - year increases of 50% and 61% [78]. Supply - Demand Balance and Profit Calculations - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, and domestic demand of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and components from January to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand balance situation [98]. - Profit Calculations: Based on different polysilicon prices, the cash profits, gross profits, and net profits of silicon wafers, batteries, components, and integrated enterprises are calculated. The current profit situation is better than the extreme profit situation [104]. Price Outlook and Strategies - Price Outlook: If the platform company is established, the spot price is likely to rise, but considering the weakening fundamentals, the price may reach a limit of 60,000 yuan/ton. If the platform company is not established, the price may move towards 45,000 yuan/ton [105][110]. - Q4 Strategies: The operating range of the Q4 main contract may be between 45,000 and 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The establishment of the platform company directly affects the long - short arbitrage logic, and it is recommended to wait and see [110].
2025Q4多晶硅季度观点：政策交易VS基本面交易的拐点？-20250928
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-28 04:43