有色金属行业周报：铜价或开启牛市，G7欧盟讨论设稀土底价-20250928

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The copper market may enter a bull market phase due to significant production cuts at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, disrupting the global supply-demand balance [1]. - Precious metals prices continue to rise, with silver breaking through historical highs, driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainties [2]. - The G7 and EU are discussing setting a price floor for rare earths, which is expected to positively impact rare earth prices in the short term [1][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME copper closing at $10,205 per ton (+2.1%) and SHFE copper at 82,470 CNY per ton (+3.3%) [3]. - Supply constraints are evident as Freeport announced a production cut of over 200,000 tons this year due to a landslide at the Grasberg mine [3]. - Demand remains stable, with copper rod and wire cable enterprises operating at 73.78% and 65.44% capacity, respectively [3]. - Social copper inventory as of September 19 is 140,100 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons from the previous week [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $3,756.8 and $46.1 per ounce, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 8.2% respectively [2]. - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.2% in August, aligning with expectations, while geopolitical tensions have increased due to the U.S. Congress's actions and international recognition of Palestine [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,649 per ton, down 1.0% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,755 CNY per ton, down 0.24% [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost is approximately 16,283 CNY per ton, with industry average profits expanding to around 4,487 CNY per ton [4]. Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 273,600 CNY per ton, up 1.9% [9]. - Market attention is shifting back to fundamentals, with slow recovery in Myanmar and low inventory providing price support [9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 562,500 CNY per ton and terbium oxide at 7,050,000 CNY per ton [10]. - The G7 and EU's consideration of a price floor for rare earths is expected to provide short-term support for prices [10].