中国煤炭行业中期信用观察：需求不旺反弹有限，“反内卷”助力供给收缩，煤价寒冬仍待穿越

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the coal industry Core Insights - The coal production in China has remained high since 2025, with significant growth in Shanxi and Xinjiang, while the overall coal supply is expected to remain stable compared to last year due to anticipated production cuts in the second half of the year [6][7] - Coal consumption has been weak, particularly in the power sector, where the rise of clean energy has negatively impacted thermal power demand, leading to a decline in coal consumption [14][15] - The coal price has been on a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with a slight rebound observed in July, but the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain [21][27] - The profitability of coal enterprises has significantly decreased, with some companies experiencing over a 50% drop in net profits or even losses [27][28] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the reduction of production in loss-making coal mines, impacting the overall supply dynamics [12][35] Summary by Sections Key Focus Areas - Domestic coal production has remained high, with a total of 2.78 billion tons produced from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [7] - The coal import volume has decreased, with 257 million tons imported from January to July 2025, a decline of 12.96% year-on-year [9] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to lead to a contraction in raw coal production in the second half of the year [12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall coal supply is expected to remain stable in 2025, with a balance between production and consumption [14] - The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, but the shift towards clean energy has led to a decline in thermal power generation [15] - The steel industry, another major consumer, has also seen reduced demand due to a slowdown in construction and real estate [16] Price Trends - Coal prices have shown a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with a significant drop in coking coal prices compared to thermal coal [21][27] - The average net profit of sample coal enterprises decreased by 27.03% in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging profitability environment [28] Financial Health of Coal Enterprises - The debt levels of coal enterprises have increased, with a slight rise in financial leverage and a weakening of debt repayment indicators [30] - The operating cash flow of sample enterprises decreased by 33.28% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the impact of declining coal prices [30][31] Conclusion - The coal industry is facing significant challenges, with weak demand, declining prices, and increasing debt levels, leading to a further weakening of profitability and financial health [35]