美国经济数据超预期不改实际利率中期下行预期，贵金属宏观叙事良好本周续创新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. Precious metals outperformed with a 5.55% increase, while industrial metals rose by 5.15% [1][15]. - Economic data from the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations. Precious metals are expected to benefit from the rapid decline in real interest rates since August [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, with the non-ferrous metals sector increasing by 3.52%, outperforming the index by 3.31 percentage points [15]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals increased by 5.55%, industrial metals by 5.15%, while small metals and new materials declined [15]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The price of copper rose due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine incident in Indonesia. As of September 26, LME copper was priced at $10,205 per ton, up 2.09% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥82,470 per ton, up 3.20% [2][34]. Supply is tightening due to significant maintenance in domestic smelting plants and the mine incident affecting production [2]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices recorded a slight decline, with LME aluminum at $2,649 per ton, down 1.01%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,745 per ton, down 0.24% [3][39]. Demand remains weak despite pre-holiday stocking, and overall theoretical demand has decreased [3]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,887 per ton, down 0.41%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,980 per ton, down 0.29% [42]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME inventory decreasing while SHFE inventory increased [42]. - Tin: Tin prices increased slightly, with LME tin at $34,415 per ton, up 0.57%, and SHFE tin at ¥274,070 per ton, up 1.97% [47]. Supply issues persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing maintenance in domestic production [47]. Precious Metals - Gold: Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 1.89%, and SHFE gold at ¥856.06 per gram, up 3.07% [4][51]. Positive U.S. economic data has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations, supporting gold prices [4][52]. The report emphasizes that the current macro narrative favors precious metals due to the expected continuation of declining real interest rates [4][52].