投资策略周报：节前节后，市场主线的穿越与切换-20250928

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, emphasizing a "technology first" strategy supported by dual drivers: technology leadership and PPI trading [2][11][40] - Current market characteristics highlight a strong focus on technology, with funds diversifying from a few high-performing sectors to a broader range of sub-themes within technology, enhancing the belief in "technology first" [2][11][40] - For investors seeking lower-priced alternatives to previously high-performing sectors like optical modules and innovative drugs, the report suggests focusing on gaming, media, internet, Huawei's supply chain, and battery sectors [2][11][40] Group 2 - The report identifies a calendar effect where the market typically experiences "pre-holiday sluggishness and post-holiday enthusiasm," with specific sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and agriculture expected to outperform in October [3][17][25] - Historical data indicates that the probability of market leadership switching or crossing over around the holiday is similar, with technology sectors more likely to maintain their leadership [4][35][36] - The report outlines a "4+1" industry allocation strategy, recommending technology growth, self-sufficiency, military industry, cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI improvements, and stable dividend stocks [5][44][45] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current technology leadership is supported by three long-term factors: relative profitability of technology sectors, overseas market influences, and a global semiconductor cycle that is trending upward [4][40] - The report highlights that the market's main themes have shifted over the years, with technology sectors like fintech and TMT being more resilient during holiday periods [35][36][39] - Specific sectors such as AI hardware, semiconductors, and robotics are recommended for investment, alongside cyclical sectors like metals and chemicals that may benefit from PPI improvements [5][44][45]