KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-28 06:43Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on three companies in the consumer goods sector. The food and beverage index declined by 2.5%, ranking 23rd among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector (+0.9%), other food products (+0.0%), and meat products (-0.0%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor market is showing bottoming characteristics, with the consumer goods sector focusing on three companies. The liquor market's sales have improved slightly in Q3, but year-on-year declines persist due to the ongoing impact of alcohol bans on business consumption and overall consumer pressure [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 2.5%, ranking 23rd out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector, other food products, and meat products showed relatively better performance [12][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder in GDT auctions was $3,790 per ton, down 0.5% month-on-month but up 9.9% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, stable month-on-month but down 3.5% year-on-year [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Moutai's terminal sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The company is deepening its reform process and emphasizing sustainable development, with an increased dividend rate [40][44]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business, with a downward trend in raw material costs expected to continue until 2027 [11]. 2. Weilong Delicious: New product launches are expected to stabilize the noodle product line, with significant growth in the konjac category [11]. 3. Bairun Co.: The cocktail business is expected to see slight growth, with a focus on new products and whiskey brand development [11][44].