国际宏观资讯双周报-20250928

Economic Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024[9] - Turkey's central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations[13] - Indonesia announced an economic stimulus package worth 16.23 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1 billion) to boost consumption and employment[15] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded Poland's credit outlook from stable to negative while maintaining an A2 rating, citing weakened fiscal and debt indicators[41] - Fitch upgraded Italy's credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting improved fiscal policies and revenue growth[42] - Fitch raised Portugal's credit rating from A- to A with a stable outlook, noting a significant reduction in public debt as a percentage of GDP[43] - Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ with a stable outlook, highlighting rising public debt and persistent fiscal deficits[45] Geopolitical Risks - Recent drone incidents involving Russia have heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, impacting the sovereign credit ratings of affected countries[7] - The ongoing conflict in Gaza has led to increased military spending in Israel, with an additional budget of $9 billion primarily for defense purposes[20] Trade and Investment - South Korea recorded a current account surplus of $10.78 billion in July, the highest for that month in history, with a cumulative surplus of $60.15 billion for the first seven months of the year[31] - The U.S. and India are set to complete the first phase of their trade agreement negotiations by November 2025[29]