国资委聚焦“稳电价稳煤价”，重申重视煤炭低位反转机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that due to low port inventories and the ongoing price inversion between pit and port coal, the space for coal price adjustments post the double festival is limited. If a double La Niña occurs, coal prices in Q4 2025 are expected to exceed expectations. The current low coal congestion levels and the PB and ROE of elastic thermal coal and coking coal companies are at the lower third percentile since 2016, indicating signs of a cycle bottom. The bottom coal price in Q2 2025 is expected to be near the 90th percentile of the complete cost line, which may serve as a relative bottom for coal prices in the next 2-3 years, with a high probability of upward fluctuations in the future [2][7][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 1.30%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.37 percentage points, ranking 19th out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of September 26 was 701 RMB/ton, down by 3 RMB/ton week-on-week. The coking coal price at Jing Tang Port was 1750 RMB/ton, up by 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][15]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of September 25, the daily coal consumption in 25 provinces was 511.6 million tons, a decrease of 9.0% week-on-week and 11.5% year-on-year. The inventory of power plants was 126 million tons, with an available days increase of 2.6 days week-on-week. The port inventory at the northern three ports was 11.84 million tons, down by 1.82% week-on-week, indicating a healthy inventory level despite seasonal demand fluctuations [15][34][37]. Price Trends - The report highlights that the current coal price is supported by the low inventory levels and the price inversion between pit and port coal. The report anticipates that if the double La Niña phenomenon occurs, it could lead to a significant increase in coal prices in Q4 2025, driven by higher daily consumption during a potential cold winter [7][6][34]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cyclical growth stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Power Investment Corporation. It also suggests price elastic stocks like Lu'an Environmental Energy, Jinko Coal Industry, and Huayang Co., Ltd. Additionally, growth-value stocks like Xinji Energy are worth attention [7][6].