债市微观结构跟踪：微观情绪指数降至近两年低位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 31% compared to the previous period, and the indicator quantile value further declined in the cold range. Most indicator quantile values decreased, with only a few showing a slight increase [14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped to 31% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 6 percentage points to 31%, and the indicator quantile value further declined in the cold range. Only the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the whole - market turnover rate, the allocation disk strength, and the commodity price ratio quantile value increased slightly, while the rest decreased. For example, the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped 23 percentage points, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped 37 percentage points [14]. 3.2. The proportion of indicators in the hot range dropped significantly to 5% - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 1 (5% of the total), the number in the neutral range increased to 8 (40% of the total), and the number in the cold range increased to 11 (55% of the total). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the fund's ultra - long - term bond buying volume, and the money tightness expectation all dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range [19]. - The average quantile of various indicators declined. In trading heat, the trading heat average quantile dropped 8 percentage points; in institutional behavior, the institutional behavior average quantile dropped 7 percentage points; in spreads, the spread average quantile dropped 6 percentage points; in price ratios, the price ratio average quantile remained the same as the previous period [19]. 3.2.1. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped to the neutral range - Among the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 17%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 33%. Only the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate dropped 23 percentage points and moved from the over - heated range to the neutral range, while the TL/T long - short ratio and the whole - market turnover rate increased 17 and 15 percentage points respectively [21]. 3.2.2. The allocation disk strength increased slightly due to insurance buying - Among the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 0%, the proportion in the neutral range increased to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range increased to 50%. The fund's ultra - long - term bond buying and the money tightness expectation dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, and the fund - rural commercial bank buying volume dropped from the neutral range to the cold range [23]. 3.2.3. The market and policy spread quantile values both declined - The policy spread widened slightly from 11bp to 14bp, and its quantile value dropped 6 percentage points to 6%, remaining in the cold range. The credit spread, the agricultural development - state - owned development spread, and the IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 4bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively, and the average spread widened from 18bp to 21bp, with its quantile value dropping 7 percentage points to 48%, remaining in the neutral range [30]. 3.2.4. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value continued to decline slightly - The proportion of price - ratio indicators in the cold range remained at 100%. The stock - bond price ratio quantile value dropped 2 percentage points, the commodity price ratio quantile value increased 2 percentage points, and the real - estate price ratio quantile value changed little [33].