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房地产行业研究:新一线城市谋划新政,上海“好房子”新规落地
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-09-28 08:06

Investment Rating - The report suggests a low valuation for the real estate sector, recommending to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [5]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with new home prices in 70 cities showing negative month-on-month changes for 27 consecutive months, and second-hand home prices for 28 consecutive months [4][12]. - Recent policies in major cities aim to stimulate demand for improved housing, indicating potential for recovery in the market [4][12]. - The report highlights that the basic market conditions are expected to gradually improve due to the effects of previous policies and the upcoming demand season [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly change of -0.2%, ranking 11th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector dropped by -3.3%, also ranking 11th [2]. - The average premium rate for land transactions remains low at 2%, with a significant year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [2][27]. New Home Sales - In the week of September 20-26, 47 cities recorded new home sales of 380 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25% but a year-on-year decrease of 4% [3][32]. - Sales in first-tier cities increased by 1% week-on-week and 15% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 41% week-on-week increase [3][32]. Second-Hand Home Sales - The report indicates that 22 cities sold 243 million square meters of second-hand homes, with a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [40]. - First-tier cities experienced a 3% decrease week-on-week but a 24% increase year-on-year in second-hand home sales [40]. Policy Developments - New policies in cities like Shanghai aim to enhance housing quality and stimulate demand for improved housing [5][14]. - The focus of future policies will likely be on stimulating demand for improved housing, optimizing public fund policies, and revitalizing existing properties and land [4][12]. Key Companies - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts are China Overseas Land & Investment, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Group, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 55.1 billion, 54.1 billion, 44 billion, 40 billion, and 34.7 billion respectively [27][28].