宏观周报：美联储分歧加剧，国内静待政策加力-20250928

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve officials show significant divergence regarding future interest rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the outlook[2] - Powell indicates that any rate cuts will likely be slow and moderate unless there is a clear economic downturn[2] - U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth was revised up to 3.8%, with personal consumption expenditure increasing by 2.5%[4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - PPI shows a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating the effectiveness of anti-involution measures[2] - As of September 26, the average retail sales of passenger cars in September reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2118.6, a month-on-month increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 7.7%[2] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Production - WTI crude oil rose by 1.02% and Brent crude by 1.5% as of September 26, driven by supply concerns[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.47 percentage points to 84.47% as of September 28[2] - Cement dispatch rates recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59 percentage points, up 4.66% year-on-year[3] Group 4: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - CPI shows a decline in pork prices by 0.94% week-on-week, while fruit and vegetable prices have generally rebounded[2] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables increased by 1.16%, and the average price of 6 monitored fruits rose by 2.02%[2] - The personal savings rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.6%, indicating stable consumer spending and income growth[4]