有色金属行业周报（2025.09.22-2025.09.28）：供给扰动频发，金属板块有望实现多重共振-20250928

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly in copper and gold, due to supply disruptions and increased demand for ETFs [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant supply concerns in the copper market following a landslide at the Grasberg mine, which is expected to reduce Freeport's copper production guidance by approximately 27,000 tons [1][17]. - The copper smelting industry is facing "involution" competition, which has led to low processing fees, prompting calls for regulatory measures to stabilize the industry [2][18]. - The Congolese government has extended a cobalt export ban, tightening global supply expectations and impacting cobalt prices [4][20]. - Global gold ETF holdings have seen the fastest growth in three years, indicating strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a 3.52% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.31 percentage points [11]. Key Focus Areas & Price Changes - Copper: LME copper price rose to $10,205 per ton, a 2.09% increase week-on-week, with a significant drop in LME copper inventory [23][26]. - Gold: COMEX gold price reached $3,789.80 per ounce, up 1.89% week-on-week, with a notable increase in ETF holdings [40][45]. - Cobalt: The price of electrolytic cobalt increased by 12.68% week-on-week, reflecting supply constraints due to export bans [46][47]. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - Industrial Metals: Recommendations include companies with integrated operations in aluminum and copper, such as China Hongqiao and Zijin Mining, with expectations for copper prices to potentially exceed $12,000 per ton [56][58]. - Precious Metals: Continued central bank gold purchases suggest gold remains a strong long-term asset, with recommendations for stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [56][57]. - Strategic and Minor Metals: The report anticipates a revaluation opportunity for strategic metals like cobalt and tungsten due to ongoing export controls and rising prices [57][58].