Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-28 08:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The report suggests that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It anticipates that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline being further introduced. Core cities are expected to lead the recovery as they approach the bottom of the market [3][29]. - The "Good House" policy is expected to create a new development track with "new products, new pricing, and new models," which will improve the real estate market in core cities with lower penetration rates [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction volume of 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. First and second-tier cities increased by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant rise of 43.8% [4][29]. - For September 2025, the total new housing transaction volume in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 13 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September's transaction volume was 4.235 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [12][29]. New Housing Inventory - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 1.48 million square meters of new housing launched, with a total inventory of 90.309 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. The average monthly deprecation period was 24.8 months, an increase of 1.8 months [20][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant government efforts to stabilize the real estate market, including over 1.6 trillion yuan in funding for key projects and a 52% annual increase in rental housing loans. Local governments are also implementing various supportive measures, such as home purchase subsidies and policies to improve land use efficiency [29][30]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony capacity and facade materials, while Dongguan has launched a new home purchase subsidy policy [29][30]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue up to 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds. Other companies like China Merchants Shekou and CIFI Group are also actively engaging in financing activities [33][35]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which rose by 1.07%. The report notes that the real estate sector ranked 11th among 31 sectors in terms of performance [41][44].