国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot price of mainstream delivery products has changed slightly, the port inventory has decreased overall, the futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and the freight and exchange rate have also changed [4][6][20] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of September 21, there were 27 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 22 bound for the Chinese mainland and 5 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in September and 12 in October, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.41 million cubic meters in September [5] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 19, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 20,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 700 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1408 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,900 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 476,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 12,000 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 290,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,900 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 146,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 8,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0546 million cubic meters, a decrease of 24,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] 3.3 Market Trend - As of September 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 808.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.2% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations this week, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 11.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 11 - 03 monthly spread at - 16.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 monthly spread at - 5 yuan per cubic meter [20] 3.4 Other - As of the week of September 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,266.00 points, an increase of 79 points (+2.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 832 points, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,114.52 points, a 7.0% decrease from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated upwards. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.134, a 0.30% week - on - week increase, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 2.5% to 1.720 [6][61]