铅产业链周度报告-20250928

Report Information - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixian Fei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: September 28, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The primary supply pressure is significant, and the demand has a significant incremental increase in the short - term, which supports the short - term price. The production of primary lead is under pressure, and the profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to the profitable level. The consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally. [6] - From the perspective of supply and demand, domestic lead inventory has decreased from 67,600 tons on September 18th to 46,400 tons on September 25th. The ratio of long - position to inventory of the SHFE Lead 10 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has continued to narrow. It is recommended that existing long positions be held, and new long positions should be cautious. Before the holiday, control the position. In terms of spreads, short - term consumption has improved, and enterprises' restocking has reduced inventory, so the SHFE lead calendar spread arbitrage can be held temporarily. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction - related - Price and Spread: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,110 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.20%. The LME lead 3 - month contract's closing price last week was 1,995.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.37%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread increased by 4.65 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [7] - Inventory: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,525 tons from the previous week to 34,764 tons. The SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons. The social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 46,400 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 0.20% to 10.09%. [7] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 49,275 lots, an increase of 13,300 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 60,662 lots, an increase of 27,919 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of the LME lead 3 - month contract was 4,919 lots, an increase of 1,192 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week. [7] 2. Supply - related - Lead Concentrate: The production of lead concentrate in China, its import volume, actual consumption, and operating rate are presented in the report. The import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate spot has dropped to - 110 US dollars/ton this week, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises is under pressure. [6][27] - Primary and Secondary Lead: The production of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are shown. The profit of secondary lead enterprises has recovered to the profitable level, and some enterprises in Anhui, Hubei and other regions have started to resume production. [6][32][33] - Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are included. The price of waste batteries has been under pressure, and smelting is profitable. [6][39][40] - Import and Export: The net import of refined lead, monthly import volume of lead ingots, import profit and loss, and export volume of lead ingots are provided. [43] 3. Demand - related - Lead - Acid Batteries: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally, and large lead - acid battery enterprises have increased raw material procurement before the holiday. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries are also presented. [6][46] - Consumption and End - Users: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles are shown, reflecting the end - user demand for lead. [48]