金属行业周报：铜不只是供应问题，看涨铜价-20250928

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks, particularly copper, precious metals, and cobalt, suggesting an adjustment to a buy rating [1]. Core Insights - The copper supply issue has deepened market understanding of metal resource supply and demand dynamics. Despite a significant decline in China's real estate sector in 2023, various non-ferrous metals have shown unexpectedly strong consumption [1]. - The report highlights a notable increase in precious metals, reinforcing the logic of de-dollarization, with central bank gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new material stocks related to technological growth, alongside traditional non-ferrous metals like copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The weekly price of antimony ingots is reported at 175,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.96%. The domestic antimony market is still under pressure from oversupply [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among sectors. Precious metals led with a 5.55% increase, while small metals and new materials saw declines [4]. - The largest weekly gain was observed in cobalt prices, which rose by 12.74% due to surging demand from the battery industry and tightening export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. Copper Market - As of September 25, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 0.88 million tons to 14.89 million tons, down from 15.43 million tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a shift from surplus to a slight deficit in global copper supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced operational setbacks, leading to a significant downward revision of expected copper output for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by strong fundamentals and ongoing supply issues [4]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 617,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking. The report notes a significant increase in aluminum cable exports and a recovery in production rates [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3,761 USD/ounce (+2.1%) and silver at 46.055 USD/ounce (+7.0%). The report attributes this to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Platinum prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 12.2% in the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic data [5]. New Materials and Energy - The report highlights the robust demand for lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate prices showing slight increases. The cobalt market is expected to face a significant supply gap in the coming years due to export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The report also discusses the potential for uranium prices to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand [6].