高频数据跟踪：沥青生产提速，原油铜价上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses: production is steadily rising, steel production is relatively stable, asphalt operating rate reaches the highest in the past two years, and the fiscal expenditure progress may accelerate; the real - estate market shows marginal improvement with the commercial housing transaction area rising for two consecutive weeks; overall prices are rising, with significant increases in crude oil and copper prices, slight decreases in coking coal and rebar of the black series, and agricultural product prices rising again; domestic and foreign freight rate indices show different trends, with BDI rising steadily and SCFI declining rapidly; affected by extreme weather such as typhoons, the number of executed flights decreases, with a large decline in the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao region. Short - term focus is on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Steel production rises steadily, and asphalt operating rate hits a two - year high - Steel: In the week of September 26, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.04 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pct, and the rebar output increased by 0.01 tons. The inventory decreased by 0.66 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: In the week of September 24, the domestic petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 40.1%, an increase of 5.7 pct from the previous week, reaching the highest since October 2023 [10]. - Chemical industry: On September 25, the domestic chemical PX operating rate increased by 0.73 pct from the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.64 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: In the week of September 25, the all - steel tire operating rate increased by 0.06 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.08 pct [11]. Demand: Commercial housing transactions improve marginally, and SCFI declines rapidly - Real estate: In the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 22.79 million square meters; the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities increased; the land supply area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.41 million square meters; the premium rate of residential land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 1.43 pct [16]. - Movie box office: In the week of September 21, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 1.098 billion yuan [16]. - Automobiles: In the week of September 21, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.43 million vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 0.96 million vehicles [20]. - Shipping index: In the week of September 26, SCFI decreased by 6.98%, CCFI decreased by 2.93%, and BDI increased by 2.54% [22]. Prices: Crude oil and copper prices rise significantly, and agricultural product prices rise again - Energy: On September 26, the Brent crude oil price rose by 5.17% to $70.13 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreased by 0.12% to 1,214.5 yuan per ton [24]. - Metals: On September 26, the changes in LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices were +2.09%, -1.01%, and -0.41% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.60% [25]. - Agricultural products: On September 26, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index rose by 0.93%. Among major agricultural products, the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by -0.31%, +1.44%, +2.01%, and +1.61% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. Logistics: The subway passenger volume increases, and the number of executed flights decreases - Subway passenger volume: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 203,500 person - times, and that of Shanghai increased by 285,700 person - times [30]. - Executed flights: On September 25, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreased by 521.43 flights, domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreased by 58.43 flights, and international flights decreased by 32.57 flights [32]. - Urban traffic: On September 26, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.03 [32]. Summary: Asphalt production speeds up, and crude oil and copper prices rise - The high - frequency economic data focuses are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing short - term attention to policy implementation, real - estate market recovery, and overseas policy impacts [34].