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沈阳国际软件园 REIT 申购价值深度分析
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-28 09:05

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shenyang International Software Park REIT has certain investment value due to its stable performance, high EBITDA margin, and relatively high predicted distribution rate. However, it also faces risks such as potential fluctuations in the occupancy rate and the expiration of the incubator subsidy policy [4]. - The project's location is advantageous, with strong digital software cluster effects and government resource support. The original equity holders are leading developers and operators in the region, with rich experience in park operation and management [4]. - The expected fair - value range of the project assets in the next 12 months is 902 million - 1.15 billion yuan, and the IRR is 6.40% - 7.42%. The predicted capitalization rate in 2025 is 5.81% - 7.22%, and the assessment unit price is relatively low [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Issuance Elements - The Shenyang International Software Park REIT has a total of 300 million fund shares to be issued. The initial inquiry period is from 9:00 - 15:00 on September 29, 2025, with an initial inquiry range of 2.736 - 4.104 yuan per share. The fund share raising period is from October 13 - 14, 2025. The expected fundraising is 1.026 billion yuan [8]. - The original equity holders plan to use over 90% of the net recycled funds from the fundraising for the Phase III of Block E and Phase V of Block A of the Shenyang International Software Park and the Shenyang Digital Economy Industrial Park [8]. 2. Prominent Digital Software Cluster Effect and Strong Backing of Industrial Resources 2.1 The Largest Software Industry Agglomeration Area in Shenyang, with Superior Location and Complete Transportation Facilities - The infrastructure projects of the REIT include the Angli Information Park A and B Buildings, the Software Park D and E Areas, and the Software Park B and F Areas, located in the Hunnan District of Shenyang. The total construction area is 201,195.19 square meters, and the actual rentable area is 198,239.67 square meters [10][11]. - The Hunnan District is a key transportation hub in the Shenyang Economic Zone, with an international airport, a high - speed railway station, and a well - connected transportation network. The park is adjacent to main roads and is the only subway - accessible park in the Hunnan District, which is conducive to population and industry introduction [12][13]. - The Hunnan District has a high concentration of innovative elements and strong industrial policy support, attracting a large number of high - tech enterprises. The park is in line with the local industrial planning and has become the largest software industry agglomeration area in the city [15][16]. 2.2 Original Equity Holders: Leading Developers and Operators in the Region, Managing Over One Million Square Meters of Industrial Parks - The original equity holders are the Industrial Development Company and the Software Park Company, with the same actual controller, Mr. Zhao Jiuhong. The Industrial Development Company manages five industrial park projects with a total construction area of about 1.07 million square meters as of March 31, 2025 [17][19][21]. - The Industrial Development Company's revenue fluctuates greatly, with losses in the recent two periods. The Software Park Company's revenue and net profit also fluctuate, and its gross profit margin is declining [23][27]. 2.3 Full - chain Introduction of Government Resources and Prominent Competitiveness of Value - added Services - The park is the only private park in Shenyang with participation from municipal state - owned capital and the only mixed - ownership park in the Hunnan District with investment from district - level state - owned capital. It has received full - chain resource support from the government in terms of equity investment, investment promotion, incubation, and capital assistance [29]. - The park has established multiple industrial guidance funds with the government, which have invested in 8 park enterprises with a total investment of 215 million yuan. Some of these enterprises are planning to apply for IPO [31]. - The park provides value - added services such as investment and financing, talent, and industrial services, which have attracted a large number of high - tech enterprises. As of Q1 2025, tenants in the "Scientific Research and Technical Services" and "Information Transmission, Software, and Information Technology Services" industries accounted for 68% of the total leased area [34][35]. 2.4 Abundant Supply of Industrial Parks in the Hunnan District, with High - level Rental Prices - As of March 31, 2025, the total inventory of industrial parks in Shenyang was 4.0183 million square meters, and the Hunnan District accounted for 56.25% of the total. The average occupancy rate in Shenyang was about 73%, and the average rent was 33.5 yuan per square meter per month. The occupancy rate in the Hunnan District was about 70%, and the rent was about 42.9 yuan per square meter per month [35][37]. - Although there will be new industrial park projects in the future, the supply rhythm is even, and the market pressure is controllable. With the economic development of Shenyang and the improvement of the regional recognition of the Hunnan District, the demand for high - quality industrial carriers is increasing [39][40]. 3. Stable Performance and Continuous Increase in EBITDA Margin - The income of the infrastructure project mainly comes from rental income, accounting for about 80%. From 2022 - Q1 2025, the project's revenue was 103 million, 106 million, 103 million, and 26 million yuan respectively, and the EBITDA was 73 million, 76 million, 76 million, and 19 million yuan respectively, showing stability [41]. - The project's gross profit margin is relatively stable but lower than the average of comparable REITs. The EBITDA margin has been increasing steadily and has been higher than the average of comparable REITs since 2023 [47]. 4. Predominantly Start - up and Small - medium - sized Tenants, with Potential Risk of Rising Vacancy Rate 4.1 Stable Occupancy Rate and Rental Price, Both at a Relatively High Level in the Region - From 2022 - Q1 2025, the weighted average occupancy rate of the project was 84%, 86%, 84%, and 84% respectively, which was relatively stable and higher than the average of comparable REITs in 2024 and Q1 2025. The project's de - stocking level is in the upper - middle range in the Hunnan District [50]. - The rent level of the project is relatively stable. In Q1 2025, the average effective rent was 45.61 yuan per square meter per month, which is in the upper - middle level in the market and in line with the project's competitive position [58]. 4.2 Low Tenant Concentration and Increasing Proportion of Start - up and Small - medium - sized Enterprises - As of March 31, 2025, there were 525 lease contracts in effect, and the top ten tenants accounted for 17.6% of the leased area, lower than the average of comparable REITs. There is no significant cash - flow provider in the project [62]. - From 2022 - Q1 2025, the rental income from start - up and small - medium - sized enterprises accounted for a high and increasing proportion, reaching 66.29% in Q1 2025 [65]. 4.3 Stable Historical Cash - flow of the Incubator, but Low Collection Rate due to Subsidy Delay - The government provides rent subsidies for start - up technology enterprises in the incubator. As of March 31, 2025, the incubator area was 24,230.71 square meters, accounting for 12.2% of the rentable area. The historical cash - flow of the incubator is stable, but the subsidy is delayed, resulting in a relatively low collection rate [68][69][73]. - The project's current collection rate is affected by the delayed subsidy payment and the existence of large tenants paying rent in arrears. The "Operation Management Service Agreement" stipulates that the operation management agency will provide liquidity support for the unpaid incubator rent subsidy [73][74][75]. 4.4 About 70% of Leases Expire Concentratedly, but the Renewal and De - stocking are Expected to be Controllable - As of March 31, 2025, the lease contracts in effect are mainly short - and medium - term, with about 40% of the leased area having a contract term of less than one year and about 75% less than three years. The weighted average remaining lease term is 1.34 years, and the areas expiring in 2025 and 2026 account for 46% and 25% respectively [76]. - The historical renewal rate of the project is about 60%, and the de - stocking efficiency after tenant withdrawal is relatively high, with about 58% of the area being de - stocked within three months and about 85% within six months [78]. 5. Valuation and Expected Increase of the Fund 5.1 The Expected Fair - value Range of the Project Assets is 902 million - 1.15 billion yuan, and the IRR is 6.40% - 7.42% - By making assumptions about the revenue, cost, and capital expenditure of each project, and using three discount rates (7.5%, 7.0%, 6.5%), the expected fair - value range of the project assets in the next 12 months is calculated to be 902 million - 1.15 billion yuan, with an IRR of 6.40% - 7.42%, higher than the average of comparable REITs [81][101][103]. 5.2 The Predicted Capitalization Rate in 2025 is 5.81% - 7.22%, and the Assessment Unit Price is Relatively Low - Based on the valuation results, the project's construction - area unit price is 4,483 - 5,716 yuan per square meter, lower than the average of comparable REITs. The predicted capitalization rate in 2025 is 5.81% - 7.22%, within the reasonable range of second - tier city business parks [105][106]. 5.3 The Predicted Distribution Rates at the Upper Inquiry Limit for 2025 and 2026 are 4.61% and 4.67% respectively - The predicted distributable amounts for the fund from April - December 2025 and 2026 are 56.71 million and 57.54 million yuan respectively. The predicted net cash - flow distribution rates (unannualized) for 2025 and 2026 are 5.53% and 5.61% respectively, higher than the latest distribution rates of other industrial park REITs. At the upper inquiry limit, the corresponding distribution rates are 4.61% and 4.67%, similar to other industrial park REITs [108]. - The original equity holders promise to ensure the distributable amount for other fund share - holders within five natural years after the fund's listing [109].