国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250928

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week's view on crude oil is to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and early next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel. The short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines, and the inter - regional spread may widen. [6][8] - The supply side is facing challenges such as the continuous acceleration of the natural decline rate, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on production, and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase. The demand side is also under pressure, with potential downward risks in the fourth quarter due to factors like the exhaustion of import quotas for independent refineries and weak macro - economic data. [6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, while social financing has declined. [22][28][33] 2. Supply - OPEC减产跟踪: Since April 2025, OPEC - 8 has gradually lifted the additional 220,000 - barrel - per - day production cut. In August, the production increase completion rate was 70%, with a shortfall of over 90,000 barrels per day according to institutional statistics. [37][38] - OPEC海运出口跟踪: OPEC's maritime exports have remained at a low level, with insignificant increments. OPEC - 8's exports decreased by 26,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, only 3,000 barrels per day more than before the production increase. [39][42] - 美国页岩油: The number of drilling rigs and production of US shale oil have stabilized. However, the industry is facing growth difficulties due to policy uncertainty, price fluctuations, and deteriorating geological conditions, and the production may decrease by 2% next year if prices fall further. [11][79] 3. Demand - The operating rates of refineries in the US and Europe are seasonally declining, while the operating rates of major refineries and independent refineries in China are rising. [81] - Global refinery capacity is expected to increase by a net of 360,000 barrels per day from 2025 - 2026, with new capacity coming online in regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, and some capacity shutting down in Europe and North America. [84] 4. Inventory - US commercial inventories have stabilized, and the inventory in Cushing has also stabilized but is significantly lower than the historical average. European diesel inventories have rebounded, while gasoline inventories have decreased. Domestic refined oil profit margins have declined. [86][91][93] 5. Price, Spread, and Position - 全球原油现货市场: High EFS has led to a westward shift in demand. In the Middle East, it is expected that Aramco will raise the OSP in November; in the Americas, exports from the US Gulf are strong; in the North Sea, the sentiment has shifted to a more bullish direction. [97][99][101] - 基差、月差及持仓: The North American basis has fluctuated. The monthly spread has rebounded slightly. SC has outperformed the external market, and the monthly spread has rebounded. The net long position has rebounded. [106][107][110]