能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, natural rubber is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner. Supply is in the peak season with weakening upward momentum of raw materials. Downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday restocking, and it is difficult for the spot inventory of natural rubber to see a significant reduction. Coupled with the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds approaching the holiday and the weakening of the macro - commodity sentiment, it is expected that RU will fluctuate weakly [97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In the first eight months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 2.906 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and its total exports to China were 1.807 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27% [5]. - In August 2025, the global light - vehicle sales reached 7.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the cumulative sales from January to August increased by 5% to 59 million units [6]. - On September 24, 2025, the US government officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto products since August 1 [6]. - In August 2025, EU passenger - car sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year to 677,786 units, but the cumulative sales in the first eight months decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [7]. 3.2 Price - This week, RU was weak, while the futures prices of standard rubber and smoked sheets rose. On September 26, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,465 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 172.6 cents/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 308.3 yen/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [10][12]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Basis and Calendar Spread: On September 26, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU01 was - 820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.80% and a year - on - year increase of 43.06%; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was 35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 600.00% and a year - on - year increase of 124.14% [18]. - Other Spreads: RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 spreads decreased, while the NR - SGX TSR20 spread increased. The prices of imported rubber in the market decreased this week, and the trading of non - standard basis was light. The spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [19][22][25]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the overall price of synthetic rubber declined. The supply of butadiene increased, and the cost side lacked driving force. The pre - holiday restocking was coming to an end, and downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [30]. 3.5 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased slightly, and the settled funds decreased significantly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds also declined significantly. On September 26, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 12.10, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 10.54%; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 27.26, a month - on - month decrease of 8.82% and a year - on - year increase of 252.19% [33][35]. 3.6 Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - Weather in Producing Areas: In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern part was slightly lower than the same period last year, and the rainfall in the northeastern part was at a seasonal high. In China, affected by typhoons, the precipitation in Hainan increased on the 25th and 26th, but the average precipitation in the past month decreased compared with last week. Yunnan is gradually entering the end of the rainy season [38][40]. - Raw Material Prices: Raw material prices were differentiated. The price of Thai cup lump rebounded, while the prices of Thai latex, smoked sheets, and Hainan latex decreased [42]. - Raw Material Spreads: The spread between Thai latex and cup lump decreased, and the spread between Hainan latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production increased [50]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The overall rubber processing profit improved [51]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber in Hainan continued to decline, while that in Yunnan increased marginally [56]. - Exports: In August, Thailand's natural rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of natural rubber from Thailand to China, Indonesia to China, and Vietnam to China all showed different degrees of growth. In August, China imported 520,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [62][65][68][72][76][79]. 3.6.2 Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: Currently, most tire enterprises maintain their previous operating levels. The overall operating rate is slightly adjusted. The tire inventory continues to rebound slightly. During the "National Day" holiday, some enterprises plan to take a 5 - 8 - day holiday, which will have a greater impact on the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises in the next period [85]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. In August, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to recover both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [86]. - Highway Transportation Turnover: In August, the freight turnover of highway transportation improved slightly both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [89]. 3.6.3 Inventory - Spot Inventory: The current natural rubber inventory continues to decline. The inventory in Qingdao continues to decline moderately, the Yunnan rubber inventory shows a slight increase, and the decline in Vietnam is gradually expanding compared with the previous period [91]. - Futures Inventory: On September 26, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 149,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.78%; the futures inventory of 20 - numbered rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.28% [94].