能源化工尿素周度报告-20250928

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Before the National Day holiday, urea prices are expected to fluctuate due to pre - holiday price cuts to attract orders and some information disturbances. The spot price has limited downside space before and during the holiday, and the futures will fluctuate after the spot price stabilizes [2][3][4]. - Medium - term: The trend is weak. Although exports are accelerating, the pre - stocked trade volume limits price drivers. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and export growth is expected to be unable to offset the weakening domestic demand. The price will gradually approach the cash - flow cost line of fixed - bed plants in northern regions [4]. - Trading strategies: - Unilateral: Fluctuate before the National Day; contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak trend, while contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong with peak - season demand expectations. For contract 01, the upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton, with the dynamic support expected to decline. It is recommended to short at high prices [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spreads for 11 - 05/12 - 05 and 1 - 5 at high prices [4]. - Inter - commodity: No recommendations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - Capacity: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons [27]. - Production: From September 18 - 24, 2025, China's urea production was 140.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.15 tons (5.38%). Next week, the production is expected to be around 140 - 141 tons, with little change. The production profit is at the break - even point, and the daily production remains high [2][32]. - Cost: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [35][40]. - Net imports (exports): Export policy adjustments may increase future export volumes. In 2025, as of June, the export volume was 6.6 tons [45]. Demand - Agricultural demand: Seasonally, the demand is strong. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea in corn cultivation. However, currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate has declined significantly [2][51][54]. - Industrial demand: - Compound fertilizer: The production cost, inventory, and production profit data are provided. Currently, the finished - product sales pressure is high, the operating rate is low, and the demand for urea raw materials is limited [58][59][60]. - Melamine: The production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate data are provided [62][63]. - Real estate: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [64]. Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 24, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 121.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.29 tons (4.54%). The overall inventory shows an upward trend, with some regional differences [3]. - Port inventory: As of September 25, 2025 (week 39), China's urea port sample inventory was 49.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 tons (3.82%). The port inventory is affected by the approaching domestic holiday, with both cargo collection and departure [3]. Valuation The report provides data on urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices at home and abroad, which can be used for price and spread analysis [8][12][18][23].