花生：关注产区上量情况

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot market has stable prices, with the national average price of general peanuts at 4.23 yuan/jin as of September 25, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 yuan/jin or 1.15%. New peanuts in various regions are gradually coming onto the market, and supply pressure will continue to be released. Food and oil terminal consumption demand has not improved significantly, and short - term demand may weaken [1]. - In the futures market, peanut futures declined in the week of September 26. The main contract (PK2511) had a high of 7858 yuan/ton, a low of 7740 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 7798 yuan/ton (previous week's close was 7834 yuan/ton). The upward drive for the futures market is weak, and attention should be paid to phased drivers [1]. - High - quality dry peanut supply shortage supports prices, while an excess of inferior goods and weak demand limit the upside of overall prices. New peanut listing progress is generally slow, and quality differentiation is evident. Pre - holiday stocking demand is lower than in previous years, and demand support is expected to further weaken [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Outlook - Spot Market: As of September 25, the national average price of general peanuts was 4.23 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin or 1.15% week - on - week. New peanuts in Henan, Shandong, Hebei, and Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, and supply pressure will continue to be released. Food and oil terminal consumption demand has not improved significantly, and some oil mills plan to shut down for 8 - 12 days before the double festivals, so short - term demand may weaken [1]. - Futures Market: In the week of September 26, peanut futures declined. The main contract (PK2511) had a high of 7858 yuan/ton, a low of 7740 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 7798 yuan/ton (previous week's close was 7834 yuan/ton). The upward drive for the futures market is weak, and attention should be paid to phased drivers. The continuous rainy weather in Henan has affected the drying progress of new peanuts, and there is an expectation that prices may come under pressure again when new peanuts are concentratedly listed at the end of September and early October [1][2]. - Market Outlook: High - quality dry peanut supply shortage supports prices, while an excess of inferior goods and weak demand limit the upside of overall prices. New peanut listing progress is generally slow, and quality differentiation is evident. Pre - holiday stocking demand is lower than in previous years, and demand support is expected to further weaken. Traders are generally cautious and wait for the market to become clearer after the full listing of new peanuts [2]. 3.2. Basis and Spread - The report provides charts of peanut basis (including Henan Baisha general and Sudan refined rice), 11 - 1 spread (some data updates have stopped), showing the historical trends of these indicators from 2021 - 2025 [6][7]. 3.3. Price Data - This week, the prices of Henan Zhumadian Baisha and Henan Huangludian Baisha were basically flat compared to last week. The price of Liaoning 308 increased by about 260 yuan/ton or 3.13% week - on - week. The prices of Henan Xindahua and Hebei Xiaoriben were basically flat compared to last week. Liaoning Xiaoriben has not been listed, so there is no comparable price [8]. 3.4. Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oil - using peanut markets was about 0.76 million tons, up 26.27% week - on - week and down 21.49% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.43 million tons, down 5.25% week - on - week and down 8.94% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.19 million tons, up 12.62% week - on - week and down 17.34% year - on - year [10]. 3.5. Demand - Sample oil mills received about 0.24 million tons of peanuts, down 37.63% week - on - week and down 84.09% year - on - year. The mainstream quotation of domestic first - grade peanut oil is 14,500 - 15,200 yuan/ton, with stable quotes but some bargaining space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market is weak, and traders are cautious, mainly meeting small - order rigid demand. The mainstream quotation of peanut meal is 3,200 - 3,300 yuan/ton, with stable quotes but negotiable actual transactions. The terminal breeding industry's support for raw material procurement is limited, and the peanut meal market has light trading. This week, the theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was - 71.69 yuan/ton, down 86.27 yuan/ton from last week. The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 8.06%, up 0.84% from last week and down 1.33% from last year. The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.43 million tons, up 11.71% week - on - week and down 14.11% year - on - year [17]. 3.6. Inventory - The report provides charts of oil mill peanut inventory and peanut oil inventory, showing the historical trends of these indicators from different production seasons [20].