煤焦周度观点-20250928

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with strong supply - demand fundamentals and positive domestic macro - expectations [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: After the parade, domestic upstream production quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained high. The actual supply has changed little in the past week, but the supply - side intervention expectations are fluctuating due to policy news, causing significant fluctuations in futures prices [3]. - Demand: Pre - holiday restocking of raw materials has begun, and the current spot demand support is relatively strong [4]. - Macro: Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, and the market had already priced in this factor, so the impact was limited after the announcement. Domestic macro - expectations remain strong, providing some support for the valuation of the black - metal sector [4]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal: 876.6 (+4.08); FW clean coal: 451.95 (+1.38) | Independent coking plants' daily average: 66.34 (-0.38); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average: 46.44 (-0.21) | | Demand | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 14.6; Mine raw coal - 11.3; Mine clean coal - 21.8; Independent coking + 58.7; Steel mill coking + 5.7; Port - 16.7; FW port + 19.1 | MS total inventory + 5.2; Independent coking - 8.0; Steel mill + 16.6; Port - 3.4 | | Profit | Commodity coal: 452 (+31) | Average profit of coking enterprises: - 34 (-17) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan: 1185 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke: 1589 | [6] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: Data on 523 sample mine开工率, FW raw coal and clean coal production are presented, showing production trends over different years [9][11][13]. - Monthly: Data on coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal production are provided, showing monthly production trends from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - Mongolian coal customs clearance: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, Ceke ports and the total of the three ports are presented, showing trends from 2021 - 2025 [17][20][21][23]. - Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the inventory of raw coal in sample mines decreased by 23.63 tons to 162.33 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 10.01 tons to 104.68 tons [28]. - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 265.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.7 tons [30]. - Coking plant: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants and their regional and capacity - based breakdowns are presented [33][35][37]. - Steel mill: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their regional breakdowns are presented [38]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity utilization: Data on the capacity utilization of independent coking plants (including different capacity levels and regions) and 247 steel enterprises are presented [41][43]. - Production: Data on the daily production of independent coking plants and 247 steel enterprises are presented, showing trends over different years [45][47]. - Inventory - Coking plant: Data on the inventory of independent coking plants are presented, showing trends over different years [49]. - Steel mill: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel enterprises are presented [50][53][54]. - Total sample: Data on the total coke inventory are presented, showing trends from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - Demand: Data on the daily production of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises and the supply - demand difference of coke are presented [58][59]. - Profit: Data on the ton - coke futures (main - contract) profit and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [62][63]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking coal futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coking coal index closing price [66]. - Coke futures: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coke index closing price [68]. - Coal and coke monthly spread: Data on the spread between JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [71]. - Coal and coke spot: Data on the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke are presented [74]. - Coal and coke basis: The futures price may weaken due to macro - sentiment and policy news, and the basis has increased month - on - month [77].