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Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Recommend selling high and shorting, with the expected trading range next week between 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton [6] - Polysilicon: Recommend waiting and seeing, with the expected trading range next week between 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon sentiment will decline, and the futures price may decline. Although the supply - demand pattern provides short - term support, the continuous decline of coking coal futures will affect sentiment. The upper limit of the futures price can refer to the hedging position during the dry season in the southwest region [5] - Polysilicon policy expectations have significantly cooled, and the futures price has returned to fundamental analysis. The supply in October is still in surplus, and the industry inventory is difficult to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent implementation of policies [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price has increased, with the Xinjiang 99 - silicon quoted at 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan month - on - month) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,200 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, closing at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable, with upstream quotes firm and downstream making small - scale replenishments [1] 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory has slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has decreased month - on - month, with increased production in Xinjiang, slightly decreased production in Sichuan, and stable production in Yunnan. The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 0.2 tons week - on - week, the social inventory has remained unchanged, and the factory inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons [2] - Demand: The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. The short - term weekly production of silicon materials remains high, and the silicon powder tender price has increased. The weekly production of organic silicon has slightly decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon remains at a rigid level. The aluminum alloy sector has rigid orders, and the actual trading volume has not significantly increased. The export market has remained stable [2] Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production remains high. The estimated production in September is about 127,000 tons, and the planned production in October is about 125,000 tons. The upstream inventory has increased [3] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule may gradually decrease. The downstream has replenished inventory for 2 - 3 months, and the next replenishment time may be in mid - October [3][4] 3. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - The sentiment will decline, and the futures price may test the cost line of small factories in Xinjiang. The upper limit of the futures price can refer to the hedging position during the dry season in the southwest region, which is around 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton (corresponding to the SI2512 contract) [5] Polysilicon - The policy expectations have cooled, and the futures price has adjusted downward. When the futures price falls to around 49,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton, non - standard product shipments are good, providing support for the futures price [6]